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US holiday hiring slumps to lowest level since 2008 as retailers cut back
For the first time in over a decade, Nicholas Strahl, a 41-year-old part-time retail worker near Indianapolis, is struggling to secure seasonal holiday employment-a challenge reflecting broader economic caution among U.S. businesses. Retailers are projected to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers this year, the lowest since the 2008 recession and a sharp decline from 442,000 in 2023, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).
Strahl, who relies on extra holiday income to cover bills and gifts, began applying to retailers like CVS and Best Buy in early October-only to face repeated rejections. "I've never seen the job market like this-it's pretty crazy," he said. "It doesn't leave much power for people who just want a job or supplement their income."
Retailers scale back amid tariffs, inflation, and automation
Analysts attribute the hiring slowdown to a mix of economic pressures. Tariffs, persistent inflation, and increased automation have reduced demand for seasonal labor, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The firm predicts the weakest holiday hiring season in over 15 years, while workforce intelligence company Revelio Labs reports a 22% drop in retail job openings compared to October 2023.
"We're just not seeing the usual pick-up in holiday hiring," said Revelio's chief economist, Lisa Simon. Meanwhile, Indeed Hiring Lab economist Allison Shrivastava described the labor market as "frozen with frostbite," noting that steady seasonal job postings mask a surge in applicants competing for fewer roles.
Major retailers stay silent on hiring plans
Unlike previous years, when companies like Target and Walmart publicly announced seasonal hiring targets, many have remained tight-lipped in 2025. Walmart, for instance, indicated it would prioritize giving extra hours to existing employees rather than hiring new seasonal staff. Amazon is the exception, committing to the same number of hires as in 2023 and 2024 for its fulfillment and transportation networks.
"The cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge," said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Smaller businesses are also exercising restraint. Hobby Works, a Maryland-based toy store chain, delayed its usual seasonal hiring timeline due to tariff costs and economic uncertainty exacerbated by the recent month-long government shutdown. "This is the first year we're moving very slowly," said president Michael Brey, citing concerns over reduced spending by furloughed government workers.
Job seekers face heightened competition
Tanya Secord, 52, secured a temporary cashier role at Target during the 2023 holidays but faced repeated rejections this year despite her retail experience. "It was incredibly stressful because the price of groceries has gone up, and the cost of living is ridiculous," she said. Secord eventually landed a receptionist job in early November after weeks of unsuccessful applications.
For Strahl, the lack of opportunities means scaling back on holiday spending and postponing essential purchases, including car repairs and a laptop replacement. "At this point, I'm willing to take anything I can get," he admitted.
Economic mixed signals complicate outlook
The labor market's cooling trend contrasts with a surprising uptick in September hiring, when employers added 119,000 jobs-double analysts' expectations-though the unemployment rate rose slightly from 4.3% to 4.4%. The delayed release of official data due to the government shutdown has further obscured the economic picture.
With retailers and job seekers alike navigating uncertainty, the 2025 holiday season underscores broader anxieties: rising costs, policy instability, and a labor market where even temporary work has become harder to secure.
