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Emissions increase after years of decline
The United States saw a 2.4% rise in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025, ending a three-year downward trend, according to a new analysis by the Rhodium Group. The increase outpaced economic growth and was driven by colder temperatures, surging power demand from data centers, and a resurgence in coal use.
Cold snap and energy demand fuel fossil fuel use
Harsh winter conditions in early 2025 led to a nearly 7% spike in natural gas consumption for heating, as most homes in colder regions rely on fossil fuels. Simultaneously, electricity demand surged due to the rapid expansion of data centers and cryptocurrency mining operations, particularly in Texas and the Ohio Valley.
The combination of higher demand and elevated natural gas prices prompted a 13% increase in coal use for power generation-the first significant rise in years. This contrasted sharply with trends in China and India, where coal use for electricity fell by 1.6% and 3%, respectively, as both nations added record levels of wind and solar capacity.
Coal's temporary comeback
"The grid met additional demand partly with renewables and partly with fossil fuels," said Michael Gaffney, lead author of the Rhodium Group report. "But due to higher gas prices, there was a shift back to coal."
Jesse Lee of Climate Power, a U.S.-based environmental group, attributed the coal resurgence to rising gas prices, which made coal economically viable again. "Coal had been declining for years because gas was so cheap," Lee said. "Now, gas is expensive enough that coal is making a comeback."
While coal power generation in the U.S. has plummeted by 64% since 2007, last year's increase marked only the second rise in the past decade. The slowdown in coal plant retirements also contributed, as utilities delayed closures to meet growing electricity needs.
"This isn't just a blip. It's a response to sustained demand growth, much of it from data centers, cryptocurrency operations, and other large energy consumers. That demand isn't going away."
Michael Gaffney, Rhodium Group
Solar growth offsets some emissions
Despite the rise in fossil fuel use, solar power expanded rapidly in 2025, growing by 34%-the fastest rate since 2017. However, the growth in renewables was not enough to counterbalance the increased reliance on coal and gas.
Transport emissions remain flat despite rising traffic
Transportation-including road, rail, and air travel-remains the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. While traffic volumes continued to climb for the fifth consecutive year, emissions from this sector remained nearly unchanged in 2025. The shift toward hybrid and electric vehicles played a key role, with hybrid sales surging by 25% compared to 2024.
Policy impact and future outlook
The Rhodium Group analysis found that the Trump administration's rollback of climate policies had little immediate effect on 2025 emissions. However, some experts argue that the administration's support for natural gas exports and the expansion of data centers may have indirectly contributed to the rise.
"There's a data center boom that's somewhat independent of Trump. But you can't separate his push for gas exports and his unconditional support for AI and data centers from the dynamics driving up emissions."
Jesse Lee, Climate Power
