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US opts for stability over democracy in Venezuela
Washington has thrown its support behind Delcy Rodríguez, a longtime ally of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, as the country's interim authority, sidelining opposition figure María Corina Machado despite her widely recognized electoral victory in 2024.
Why Rodríguez?
Rodríguez, the daughter of a former Marxist guerrilla and Maduro's former vice president, has emerged as the Trump administration's preferred choice to stabilize Venezuela. Analysts suggest the decision reflects a calculated trade-off: maintaining regime continuity without Maduro to avoid potential chaos.
Charles Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Venezuela, described the move as prioritizing stability over democratic principles. "They've kept the dictatorial regime in place without the dictator. The henchmen are still there," he said, calling the strategy "risky as hell."
Machado sidelined despite electoral mandate
President Trump's public dismissal of Machado-calling her "not respected" in Venezuela-drew sharp criticism. Kevin Whitaker, former deputy chief of mission at the US embassy in Caracas, questioned the decision: "Her movement was massively elected... disqualifying Machado, in effect, disqualified that whole movement."
Machado's opposition coalition, which secured a decisive victory in the 2024 presidential elections, has been marginalized under the new arrangement. Observers note that Rodríguez's rapid installation after Maduro's removal fueled speculation about her possible prior coordination with US officials.
"It's obvious that there were high-placed sources. My immediate speculation was that those high-placed sources were in the office of the VP, if not the VP herself."
Lindsay Moran, former CIA officer
Power dynamics and risks
Despite Rodríguez's new role, real authority in Venezuela remains concentrated in the hands of hardline military figures, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello. Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst with the International Crisis Group, dismissed theories of Rodríguez betraying Maduro, arguing she lacks the firepower to challenge the military's control.
"Why would she sell out Maduro, leaving herself defenseless against the guys who really control the guns?" Gunson said.
A classified US intelligence assessment, reported by the Wall Street Journal, warned that installing Machado could trigger violent instability, with security forces potentially waging guerrilla warfare against a new government. The report concluded that Rodríguez and other regime insiders were better positioned to lead a transitional administration.
US priorities: Oil and counter-narcotics over democracy
Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined a three-phase plan for Venezuela, beginning with stabilization and the supervised sale of 30-50 million barrels of oil. Subsequent steps include "reconciliation" efforts-such as amnesties and political prisoner releases-followed by an unspecified "transition."
Trump, however, ruled out near-term elections, telling NBC News, "We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election." This stance contradicts Venezuela's constitution, which mandates new elections within 30 days if a president becomes "permanently unavailable."
Analysts suggest Rodríguez's economic pragmatism aligns with US interests. "She's been a bit of an economic reformer," Gunson said, noting her openness to foreign investment and potential cooperation on counter-narcotics. Henry Ziemer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies added that she could deliver on US demands to reduce ties with Cuba, China, and Russia-if sanctions relief is offered in return.
Long-term skepticism
Critics argue the US strategy sacrifices Venezuelan democracy for short-term gains. Gunson warned that foreign investors are unlikely to commit billions to rebuild Venezuela's oil sector without legal certainty or a legitimate government. "Nobody's going to come in here... if the government is illegitimate and there's no rule of law," he said.
Shapiro compared Rodríguez's rise to Hugo Chávez's anointment of Maduro in 2013, calling it "Trump's dedazo"-a reference to the Spanish slang for a leader's unilateral appointment of a successor. The parallel underscores the erosion of democratic norms in Venezuela's transition.
"Trump may be getting something out of this, but Venezuelans aren't," Gunson said. "Ordinary Venezuelans are getting screwed as usual."
