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Negotiations near final stage but key obstacles remain
Russia, the United States, and Ukraine acknowledge that a potential agreement to end nearly four years of full-scale conflict is within reach, though critical unresolved issues threaten to derail progress. U.S. President Donald Trump described the remaining hurdles as "one or two very thorny, very tough issues," while the Kremlin confirmed talks have entered their "final stage."
Donbas territorial dispute central to deadlock
At the heart of the impasse is Russia's insistence on controlling the entire industrial Donbas region, including areas still held by Ukraine. Russian forces currently occupy most of Luhansk and roughly 75% of Donetsk but seek full dominance over the remaining cities, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which serve as fortified strongholds.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has proposed a compromise: a demilitarized or free economic zone along the current frontline, policed by international forces, contingent on mutual troop withdrawals. However, Zelensky emphasized the legal and humanitarian stakes, stating, "We can't just withdraw-300,000 people live there. We can't lose those people."
"If Kyiv doesn't settle this peacefully, we'll resolve it militarily,"
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War estimate Russia would need until August 2027 to seize the rest of Donetsk at its current advance rate-an outcome far from guaranteed. Zelensky's proposal also demands Russian withdrawal from other occupied territories, including parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv regions.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant emerges as second major hurdle
Europe's largest nuclear facility, the Zaporizhzhia plant in Enerhodar, remains under Russian control since March 2022. All six reactors have been in cold shutdown for over three years, with Ukrainian-supplied external power preventing a meltdown. Restarting operations would require significant investment, including repairs to the destroyed Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, which previously supplied cooling water.
Ukraine advocates for demilitarizing the area and converting it into a free economic zone. The U.S. has suggested a joint management framework involving Russia and Ukraine, but Kyiv rejects this as impractical, countering with a 50-50 U.S.-Ukraine partnership where Washington would allocate half the plant's output-implied to include Russia. Moscow, however, insists only Russian state nuclear agency Rosatom can ensure the plant's safety.
Rosatom head Alexei Likachev hinted at a potential compromise, suggesting Ukraine could access the plant's electricity through international cooperation. Yet, the lack of trust between the two nations casts doubt on any swift resolution.
Trust deficit and security guarantees complicate talks
Mutual distrust continues to undermine negotiations. Zelensky dismissed Trump's recent claim that Putin "wants to see Ukraine succeed," stating, "I don't trust Russians, and I don't trust Putin. He doesn't want success for Ukraine." Meanwhile, Russia accused Ukraine of targeting a Putin residence in Novgorod with drones-a claim Kyiv denies, calling it a pretext for further strikes on the capital.
Ukraine has sought NATO-style security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe, alongside maintaining an 800,000-strong military. While Western allies might endorse such commitments, Russia opposes any European troop presence on Ukrainian soil. Financial reparations also loom large, with Ukraine estimating $800 billion in losses. Proposals include a joint U.S.-Europe investment fund and utilizing Russia's €210 billion in frozen European assets, though Moscow has resisted such measures.
Referendum and ceasefire proposals spark further debate
Zelensky insists any deal must be validated by a national referendum, citing polls showing 87% of Ukrainians support peace but 85% reject Donbas withdrawals. He has called for a 60-day ceasefire to prepare the vote, arguing, "A referendum is the way to accept it or not accept it."
The Kremlin rejects this, warning a temporary truce would only prolong the conflict. Trump has signaled sympathy for Putin's stance, further complicating consensus. With NATO and EU membership also contentious-Russia opposes both, while Ukraine's EU accession faces delays-analysts warn the path to peace remains fraught with obstacles.
