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Frontline shifts as war enters fourth year
Russian troops have seized approximately 4,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025 alone, according to U.S.-based analysts, as Moscow presses its offensive in the eastern Donbas region. The gains-roughly twice the size of Moscow city-come ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24.
Donbas remains focal point of fighting
Russian forces continue to push through open fields in Luhansk and Donetsk, encircling villages and towns. Moscow aims to fully control these regions, along with Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, after staging referendums in 2022 to annex the territories-a move widely condemned as illegal. Despite these claims, Russia has never secured full administrative control.
A U.S.-backed peace proposal unveiled in November would require Ukraine to cede Luhansk, Donetsk, Crimea, and currently occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Ukrainian forces would withdraw from remaining Donetsk pockets, creating a demilitarized zone under de facto Russian control. Russian troops would pull back from other occupied areas outside these regions.
"Ukraine will not surrender the Donbas. Such a concession would only invite further aggression," President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, rejecting the plan.
Pokrovsk emerges as key battleground
A Russian summer offensive near Pokrovsk, a former Ukrainian logistics hub now in ruins, has yielded incremental gains. Russian officials claim to have captured Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk's Russian name), a strategic town that could serve as a launchpad for advances toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk-Donetsk's last major Ukrainian-held cities.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that Pokrovsk, spanning just 23 square kilometers, has resisted capture for nearly two years. Analysts estimate Russia would need another two years to seize the rest of Donetsk at current rates, given the region's fortified defenses.
Northern front sees renewed pressure
Further north, Russian forces are advancing on Kupyansk, a move analysts say could encircle northern Donetsk. Moscow is also pushing Ukrainian troops back from the Belgorod border, aiming to create a buffer zone within Ukraine's northern territory. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited this as a defensive measure following Ukraine's 2024 incursion into Russia's Kursk region, which was later repelled with North Korean support.
Ukraine strikes deep into Russian territory
Kyiv has escalated long-range attacks to disrupt Russia's war economy, targeting air bases and infrastructure. A recent drone strike involving 100 unmanned aerial vehicles hit nuclear-capable bomber bases in five Russian regions, including Murmansk and Irkutsk. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed damage in two locations but claimed other attacks were repelled.
Ukrainian drones were also blamed for a fire at an oil depot near Sochi, host of the 2014 Winter Olympics. General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine's armed forces chief, estimates these strikes have cost Russia over $21.5 billion in 2025 alone.
Diplomatic tensions and military dependence
Since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January 2025, Washington has pursued negotiations to end the war. Early tensions peaked in February when Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly rebuked Zelensky during an Oval Office meeting. Relations have since improved, but Ukraine remains reliant on U.S. weaponry, including air defense systems and intelligence.
Kyiv has countered the U.S. peace plan with its own 20-point proposal, which Zelensky described as a "foundation" for reconstruction and security guarantees. However, the Kremlin has dismissed compromise, reiterating demands that Ukraine abandon NATO aspirations and accept Russian control of Donetsk and Luhansk.
War's human and strategic toll
Russia's invasion began on February 24, 2022, with missile strikes across Ukraine, followed by rapid ground advances. By March, Russian troops had reached Kyiv's outskirts and seized Kherson and Mariupol. However, Ukrainian resistance-bolstered by Western arms like the NLAW anti-tank system-halted the advance. Russia withdrew from northern Ukraine by October 2022, and Ukraine reclaimed Kherson the following month.
Casualties have been staggering. Western estimates place Russian military deaths between 165,000 and 235,000. Ukraine last updated its figures in December 2024, reporting 43,000 soldier deaths-a number analysts believe is undercounted.
