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Youth dominate Uganda's election campaign landscape
From ruling party rallies to opposition gatherings, young Ugandans are the driving force behind this week's presidential election, their contrasting political loyalties reflecting a nation at a crossroads. The median age in Uganda is 17, making youth engagement a defining feature of the campaign.
Clashing visions for Uganda's future
At an opposition rally in southwestern Uganda, 24-year-old Steven Bagasha Byaruhanga expressed unwavering support for Bobi Wine, the 43-year-old former pop star challenging President Yoweri Museveni. "Bobi Wine represents hope for development," Byaruhanga told the BBC. "We need to trust him to unlock the country's potential."
Nearby, Ndyasima Patrick, a Museveni supporter, remained unconvinced. "The president has kept us stable for decades," he said. "Bobi Wine isn't ready-maybe in 2031."
Thursday's election pits Museveni, 81, who has ruled Uganda for four decades, against Wine in a rematch of the 2021 contest. The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) campaigns on "Protecting the Gains," citing Uganda's transformation from a refugee exporter to Africa's largest refugee host. Opposition leader Wine's National Unity Platform (NUP) promotes a "Protest Vote," framing the election as a fight for liberation and generational change.
Youth bulge fuels political tension
Uganda's demographic reality-78% of the population is under 30-clashes with its political system, dominated by leaders who have held power since the 1980s. This disconnect mirrors trends across Africa, where young populations are governed by aging elites who have resisted term limits and succession pressures.
"The economy can't absorb the hundreds of thousands of young people entering the job market annually," noted a political analyst. "Opportunities for change are tightly controlled, and dissent is met with repression, deepening frustration."
Recent youth-led protests in Kenya, Tanzania, and Madagascar have sent ripples through the region, inspiring activists and alarming governments. In Uganda, observers describe the election as less about legitimacy and more about managing dissent.
Electoral process under scrutiny
The UN's human rights office reported that the election is unfolding in an environment of "widespread repression and intimidation" targeting opposition figures, journalists, and dissenters. While this year's campaign has seen less violence than the 2021 election-when at least 54 people died-analysts like Prof. Kristof Titeca argue the outcome is "predetermined," with democratic rituals masking a managed process.
Smaller opposition parties, including the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the Democratic Party (DP), continue to field candidates but struggle to compete with the NRM and NUP. Their traditional support bases among urban professionals and the middle class have been eroded by internal divisions and a shift toward more confrontational youth-led activism.
The looming question: What comes after Museveni?
Speculation about Museveni's succession has persisted for decades, with constitutional amendments removing term and age limits to extend his rule. Recent developments, however, suggest a potential shift. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, Museveni's son, has rapidly consolidated power within the military, raising questions about a hereditary transfer of leadership.
After taking command of the land forces in 2021, Kainerugaba expanded his influence, overseeing the entire military by mid-decade. His highly publicized "birthday rallies" in 2022 and the launch of the Patriotic League of Uganda party fueled speculation about his political ambitions. In March 2024, he initiated sweeping military reforms, signaling an effort to secure his authority.
NRM spokesperson Emmanuel Lumala Dombo dismissed suggestions of a dynastic succession, insisting the party has established processes for leadership transitions. "If Gen. Kainerugaba seeks a political role, he must prove himself through those channels," Dombo said.
"Museveni won't step down voluntarily. He believes Uganda belongs to him and his family," Bobi Wine told the BBC, drawing parallels to Zimbabwe's late President Robert Mugabe.
A referendum on Uganda's future
Beyond the candidates, the election has become a referendum on Uganda's political direction: whether to preserve the status quo or embrace a younger generation's demands for inclusion and fairness. For many young Ugandans, the vote is less about Museveni or Wine and more about asserting their role in shaping the nation's future.
"The youth are no longer passive observers," said a political analyst. "Their energy, whether channeled through the NRM or the opposition, reflects a broader struggle for agency in a system that has long excluded them."
