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Uganda's Museveni marks 40 years in power as succession questions loom

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Four decades at Uganda's helm

Yoweri Museveni, now 81, has led Uganda since seizing power in 1986 after an armed rebellion. His recent re-election extends his tenure to 40 years, making him the only president most Ugandans under 40 have ever known. While supporters credit him with stability and development, critics accuse him of eroding democratic institutions to cling to power.

From rebel leader to long-serving president

Born in 1944 to cattle-keeping parents in western Uganda's Ankole region, Museveni came of age during Uganda's turbulent post-independence era. He later admitted in his memoir that the chaos under leaders like Milton Obote and Idi Amin left little room for personal details like birth dates. In 1967, he moved to Tanzania to study economics and political science at the University of Dar es Salaam, where he connected with politically active peers.

His prominence grew in the 1970s after Amin's coup. Museveni co-founded the Front for National Salvation, a rebel group that, with Tanzanian support, helped oust Amin in 1979. Amin's eight-year rule was marked by brutal repression, including the expulsion of Uganda's Asian community and an estimated 400,000 deaths. Museveni later dismissed Amin as a "chauvinistic" figure tied to colonial-era systems.

After Amin's fall, Obote returned to power in a disputed election, prompting Museveni to launch a guerrilla war in 1981. Five years later, his National Resistance Movement (NRM) captured Kampala, installing Museveni as president.

Economic growth and shifting reputation

Under Museveni, Uganda's economy expanded steadily, averaging over 6% annual growth in the 1990s. Primary school enrollment doubled, and HIV rates declined due to a government-led anti-AIDS campaign. Initially hailed as a Western ally, his image suffered in 1998 when Uganda and Rwanda invaded the Democratic Republic of Congo to back rebel forces. Critics also noted his growing intolerance for dissent.

Despite once criticizing African leaders who "overstay in power," Museveni's stance shifted. In 2005, Uganda's constitution was amended to remove presidential term limits. A 2017 parliamentary brawl erupted over the scrapping of the presidential age limit, further entrenching Museveni's grip. "We don't believe in term limits," he told the BBC in 2005.

Crackdowns on opposition and institutions

Museveni's longevity stems partly from weakening opposition forces. Former allies who challenged him, like ex-physician Kizza Besigye, faced repeated arrests. Besigye, who first ran against Museveni in 2001, disappeared in Nairobi in 2024 and resurfaced in a Ugandan military court on treason charges.

Pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine, 43, has faced similar repression. His rallies have been met with tear gas, live ammunition, and mass arrests. A 2024 UN report accused security forces of using "firearms and live ammunition" to disperse peaceful gatherings and abducting opposition members in unmarked vans. Museveni's response-"one soldier carries 120 bullets"-drew criticism, though he later ordered police to use tear gas instead of violence.

Independent institutions have also been targeted. Uganda's judiciary has been accused of appointing "cadre judges" loyal to the government. In 2005, armed security personnel raided Kampala's High Court to re-arrest acquitted treason suspects. Media outlets have faced raids, and journalists have been detained, despite Uganda's outwardly vibrant press landscape.

Stability and succession concerns

Museveni's supporters highlight Uganda's stability under his rule. NRM spokesperson Emmanuel Lumala Dombo noted that Uganda, once a refugee exporter, now hosts over 1.7 million displaced people from neighboring conflicts. "Forty years ago, we were among the biggest exporters of refugees," Dombo told the BBC. "Now, we're Africa's largest refugee host."

A Museveni supporter at a Bobi Wine rally, Ndyasima Patrick, echoed this sentiment: "He has kept us alive for all these years." Patrick, however, added that he believed Bobi Wine would be ready to lead only in his 50s, deferring to Museveni's experience.

Economically, Museveni has courted foreign investment, striking deals with China, the UK, and the UAE. His goal is to transform Uganda into a middle-income country by 2040. He cultivates a paternal image, referring to young supporters as Bazukulu ("grandchildren") and adopting nicknames like M7 or Sevo. To counter perceptions of frailty, he has publicly performed press-ups, including during COVID-19 lockdowns.

Yet succession worries loom. Museveni's family holds key positions: his wife, Janet, is education minister, and his son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, leads the army. A grandson recently joined the military, fueling dynasty concerns. Gen. Kainerugaba, 51, is seen as a potential successor but is known for provocative social media posts, including jokes about invading Kenya and backing Egypt in a dispute with Ethiopia.

Legacy and future

Museveni's tenure has delivered growth and stability but also authoritarianism. His government's treatment of opponents and erosion of checks and balances raise questions about Uganda's democratic future. As he ages, the uncertainty around succession-particularly the role of his son-could threaten the stability he has long championed.

"I have been here with you for 40 years now. Have you ever heard that I have been in hospital? Except when I had [coronavirus] for 21 days."

Yoweri Museveni, 2025

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