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US seizure of Maduro disrupts China's regional alliances
Beijing condemned the nighttime arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as a violation of sovereignty, but analysts say the move has forced China to recalibrate its long-term investments and diplomatic ties across South America.
Diplomatic fallout from Caracas to Beijing
Hours before his detention, Maduro had praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping as an "older brother" during a meeting with Beijing's senior diplomats in Caracas. State media broadcast footage of the two nations' officials reviewing 600 bilateral agreements-only for the next images to show Maduro blindfolded and in custody aboard a US warship.
China swiftly denounced the operation, accusing Washington of acting as a "world judge" and demanding respect for international law. Yet behind the rhetoric, Beijing faces a strategic dilemma: how to protect its economic foothold in Venezuela while navigating an increasingly volatile relationship with the Trump administration.
Economic stakes and geopolitical risks
China has poured over $100 billion into Venezuela since 2000, financing infrastructure projects in exchange for oil. Last year, 80% of Venezuela's oil exports-roughly 4% of China's total imports-flowed to Beijing. While the financial exposure is manageable, analysts warn the raid could deter future Chinese investors.
"Chinese enterprises must fully assess the risks of US intervention before committing to new projects,"
Cui Shoujun, Renmin University
Eric Olander, editor of The China-Global South Project, noted that firms like CNPC and Sinopec face potential asset seizures or marginalization amid the chaos. Venezuela also owes Chinese creditors nearly $10 billion, though the immediate risk to those loans remains unclear.
Trump's warning to Beijing
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio framed the raid as a message to China, declaring the Western Hemisphere off-limits to "adversaries." Beijing dismissed the demand but remains wary of further US actions, including a recent report urging Venezuela's interim government to sever ties with China and Russia.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning called the report "bullying" and a "violation of international law," but some observers speculate whether Beijing might draw parallels to Taiwan. Xi Jinping has vowed to "reunify" the island, though experts argue Venezuela's crisis does not alter China's calculus on force.
"China lacks confidence it could succeed at an acceptable cost,"
David Sacks, Council on Foreign Relations
China's long game in the Global South
Beijing has spent decades courting Latin America, persuading nations like Panama and El Salvador to switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China. The region's $500 billion annual trade with China-centered on energy and commodities-makes it a critical partner.
Yet Trump's unpredictability may play into China's hands. Olander suggested the Venezuela crisis could reinforce Xi's image as a stable leader compared to Washington's volatility, echoing Beijing's success in Iraq, where it became the top buyer of crude after the US invasion.
"The lesson from Iraq is clear," Olander said. "China is patient. If chaos follows US intervention, Beijing will be ready to step in."
Uncertainty ahead
For now, China's strategy hinges on balancing its trade truce with the US against its regional ambitions. The risk? Other Latin American nations may hesitate to deepen ties with Beijing for fear of provoking Washington. As one analyst put it: "This is a gamble China never wanted."
