Ask Onix
Trump Warns Nigeria Over Christian Killings as Data Accuracy Debated
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened retaliatory action against Nigeria, accusing its government of failing to stop the "killing of Christians," in a video posted on Truth Social. The warning follows months of claims by U.S. lawmakers and activists that Islamist militants are systematically targeting Nigerian Christians-allegations the Nigerian government denies, calling them a "gross misrepresentation."
Contested Claims and Political Echoes
High-profile figures, including comedian Bill Maher and Texas Senator Ted Cruz, have amplified statistics suggesting over 100,000 Christians have been killed since 2009, with 18,000 churches burned. Maher labeled the violence a "genocide," while Cruz-who has long campaigned on the issue-described it as "persecution." Cruz's office cited data from the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety), a Nigerian NGO, but the BBC found discrepancies in its sourcing and methodology.
InterSociety's 2023 report claimed 100,000 Christian deaths since 2009, plus 60,000 "moderate Muslims," but provided no verifiable breakdown. The BBC's review of 70 media reports cited by the NGO found only ~3,000 deaths mentioned-far below InterSociety's 7,000 figure for 2025 alone. The group attributed the gap to unpublished eyewitness accounts and estimates of captives killed.
"It is almost impossible to reproduce all our reports and their references dating back to 2010. Our easy method is to pick their summary statistics and add them to our fresh discoveries."
International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (InterSociety)
Alternative Data Paints Different Picture
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), which tracks West African violence, reported ~53,000 civilian deaths from political violence since 2009-not limited to Christians. Between 2020-2025, Acled documented 384 attacks specifically targeting Christians, resulting in 317 deaths-a fraction of the total. Analysts argue most victims are Muslim, with violence driven by jihadist groups like Boko Haram and criminal networks, not religious targeting.
Nigerian security analyst Christian Ani told the BBC that while Christians have been attacked, "it's not possible to justify claims they are deliberately targeted." Conflicts often stem from land disputes or ethnic tensions, particularly involving Fulani herders-a predominantly Muslim group labeled "jihadists" by InterSociety but widely seen by researchers as acting out of economic, not religious, motives.
Nigerian Government Rebuts Allegations
Abuja officials dismissed the claims as exaggerated, stating that "terrorists attack all who reject their murderous ideology-Muslims, Christians, and those of no faith alike." While acknowledging security failures, they welcomed potential U.S. assistance if coordinated with Nigerian forces. The country's 220 million people are roughly split between Muslims (majority in the north, where most attacks occur) and Christians.
Trump's threat-"to go into that now-disgraced country guns-a-blazing"-echoed Cruz's accusation that Nigerian authorities "ignore or facilitate" Christian persecution. The White House later clarified Trump's reference to 3,100 Christian deaths came from a 2023-24 report by Open Doors, a charity tracking global Christian persecution, which also noted 2,320 Muslim deaths in the same period.
Separatist Links and Lobbying Efforts
The BBC found ties between InterSociety and Biafran separatist groups, including the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (Ipob). The Biafra Republic Government in Exile (BRGIE) claimed credit for promoting the "Christian genocide" narrative in Congress, stating it had lobbied officials like Cruz. The senator declined to comment.
Broader Security Crisis Overshadows Debate
Analysts stress Nigeria's violence is multifaceted, involving jihadist insurgencies (e.g., Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province), Fulani herder-farmer clashes, and banditry-often tied to resource competition, not religion. "The identities of attackers and victims are frequently Muslim," said SBM Intelligence analyst Confidence McHarry, noting attacks on mosques in the northwest.
As Trump's remarks reignite debate, the core question remains: Are Christians systematically targeted, or are the figures inflated by political agendas and unverified data?
