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Trump vows to exploit Venezuela's oil after Maduro's capture
US President Donald Trump announced plans to seize Venezuela's vast oil reserves following the detention of President Nicolás Maduro, promising American firms will overhaul the country's crumbling energy sector. The move aims to unlock the world's largest proven crude reserves, but analysts warn of massive costs and a decade-long timeline.
Venezuela's oil potential and decline
Venezuela holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of oil-more than any other nation. Yet production has plummeted from over 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s to just 860,000 barrels in November 2025, according to the International Energy Agency. The collapse stems from years of mismanagement under Hugo Chávez and Maduro, who tightened state control over PDVSA, the national oil company, driving out skilled workers.
US sanctions, first imposed in 2015 over human rights abuses, further crippled the industry by cutting off investment and critical supplies. While Chevron remains active under a 2022 Biden-era license, most Western firms have scaled back operations.
Trump's plan: Infrastructure overhaul and legal hurdles
Trump declared US companies would repair Venezuela's "badly broken" oil infrastructure and "start making money for the country." However, experts highlight daunting obstacles. Callum Macpherson of Investec noted the sector's decayed infrastructure, while Bill Farren-Price of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies described it as "looted and dismantled" over two decades.
Legal and political risks loom large. Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler told the BBC that firms need a stable government to negotiate contracts-a process that could take months even after Maduro's removal. Companies would also gamble billions on Venezuela's future political stability, with expropriation risks lingering from past disputes involving ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.
Global oil market impact and industry skepticism
Analysts doubt Trump's plan will significantly affect global oil prices. Neil Shearing of Capital Economics said the timeline is too long to influence 2026 markets, citing "decades of underinvestment" and high extraction costs. Even if Venezuela restored production to 3 million barrels per day, it would still rank outside the top 10 global producers.
Lord Browne, former BP CEO, called reviving Venezuela's oil sector a "very long-term project," warning that output might initially decline during reorganization. Chevron, the sole remaining US operator, emphasized compliance with laws but remained silent on expansion plans. Other firms are reportedly weighing risks, though Falakshahi suggested the "potential prize" might outweigh uncertainties.
US military actions and industry reactions
Ahead of Maduro's capture, the US seized two oil tankers and blockaded sanctioned vessels near Venezuela. Industry insiders say appetite for investment hinges on political stability and on-the-ground resources. While some firms may see strategic value in diversifying supply, past conflicts and infrastructure decay pose formidable barriers.
"The issue has always been decades of underinvestment and mismanagement. It's really expensive to extract."
Neil Shearing, Capital Economics
