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Tesla's Optimus robot: Musk's $1tn bet on humanoid AI divides experts
Elon Musk's push to deploy a million Tesla Optimus robots within a decade-part of his newly approved $1tn pay package-has reignited debate over whether humanoid AI is a transformative leap or an overhyped fantasy. The billionaire claims the technology could surpass smartphones in impact, but skeptics question its practicality beyond novelty.
From showrooms to sci-fi ambitions
Unveiled in 2022, Optimus has since appeared in Tesla factories, showrooms, and even alongside celebrities like Kim Kardashian. Musk frames the robot as central to Tesla's AI strategy, alongside self-driving cars and the Cybertruck. Investors' approval of his pay deal-tied to delivering 1 million bots-signals confidence in the vision.
Yet the path to mass adoption remains unclear. While Tesla's droid recently served food at a Hollywood diner, critics argue such stunts mask deeper technical challenges. As Forrester analyst Brian Hopkins noted, falling component costs and AI advances are accelerating feasibility, but "wheels are so much more efficient" than legs for most tasks.
Industry rush and skepticism
Silicon Valley is racing ahead. Morgan Stanley projects Apple could generate $133bn annually from humanoids by 2040, while Foxconn reportedly deploys them in Texas factories. Startups like 1X's Neo-priced at $20,000-promise household chores but rely on human teleoperators, per the Wall Street Journal.
Boston Dynamics' retired Atlas robot wowed audiences with gymnastics, but its electric successor faces the same critique: bipedal designs complicate engineering without clear benefits. "Humanoids are a human fascination, not a technical necessity," one roboticist told the BBC, pointing to decades of sci-fi influence from C-3PO to the Terminator.
AGI dreams vs. reality
Musk ties Optimus to Tesla's pursuit of artificial general intelligence (AGI), claiming real-world interactions could accelerate development. "Tesla AI might play a role in AGI," he posted on X in 2022. Yet even allies like OpenAI's Sam Altman caution the world isn't ready, calling the shift "an incoming moment" with unpredictable consequences.
For now, Tesla's robot remains a work in progress-equal parts marketing spectacle and engineering gamble. Whether it becomes a household staple or another overpromised tech fad may hinge on overcoming the "uncanny valley" between gimmick and utility.
"If current trajectories hold, humanoid robots could disrupt many physical-service industries significantly by 2030."
Brian Hopkins, Forrester analyst
