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Tennessee's high-stakes special election draws national attention
A 2 December special election in Tennessee to fill a vacant congressional seat has emerged as an unexpected battleground, with Democrats pouring resources into a district Donald Trump won by 22% in 2024. Republican Party Chair Scott Golden warned supporters last week that "they're coming to Tennessee to try to take a congressional seat," signaling unease within GOP ranks over the race's unexpectedly competitive nature.
Democratic momentum became evident earlier this month when Party Chair Jaime Harrison held a rally in the district, followed by a visit from former Vice President Kamala Harris, who told canvassers, "I know the power is in the South." Political forecasters, including the Cook Political Report, now describe the race as tighter than expected, with Nashville Democrats eyeing a potential upset while many Republican voters remain unaware the election is even happening.
Economic frustrations reshape campaign strategies
The election unfolds against a backdrop of growing Republican anxiety over economic issues, traditionally a GOP stronghold. Recent local elections in Tennessee saw shifts toward Democratic candidates campaigning on affordability-a term now central to both parties' messaging. Trump has responded with proposals like 50-year mortgages and $2,000 tariff rebates, but internal divisions have surfaced. During a Fox News interview, he clashed with Laura Ingraham over the mortgage plan, which critics argue benefits banks over voters, and defended H1-B visas for foreign workers, citing gaps in domestic "certain talents."
A Vanderbilt University poll revealed over 60% of Trump supporters believe the cost of living has not decreased under his administration-a stark contrast to his 2024 campaign promises. "There's genuine unhappiness," said John Geer, co-director of the Vanderbilt poll. "Trump made prices an issue. He said he'd bring them down, and he hasn't."
Candidates pivot from culture wars to kitchen-table issues
Democratic nominee Aftyn Behn, a state legislator, has centered her campaign on "affordability," with yard signs proclaiming, "Feed kids, fix roads, fund hospitals." Her ads target Republican opponent Matt Van Epps for his ties to House Speaker Mike Johnson, framing the race as a referendum on Washington dysfunction. "If you're upset about the chaos in Washington, if you're upset about the cost of living, then I'm your candidate," Behn told supporters in Nashville.
Van Epps, an Army pilot with nine tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, secured Trump's last-minute primary endorsement but has distanced himself from the president in the general election. His ads-like Behn's-focus on economic concerns rather than cultural battles. "The cost of living is too high; inflation is still too high," he acknowledged in a local TV interview, a rare alignment with Democratic framing.
Republican fractures deepen
The race coincides with widening GOP rifts, exemplified by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's abrupt resignation on 22 November. In her farewell speech, Greene declared, "No matter which way the political pendulum swings, nothing ever gets better for the common American." Her defiance extended to pushing a vote to release Epstein-related files despite White House opposition, a move some Republicans privately called a "distraction."
"The Epstein files need to be in the rearview mirror," said Chelsea Rose, standing in for her husband, Congressman John Rose, who remained in Washington for the vote. "Frankly, it's been a distraction for a long time."
Trump's waning coattails
While Trump remains dominant in Tennessee-winning 64% of the vote in 2024-his ability to lift down-ballot Republicans is in question. The GOP underperformed in 2018 and 2022 midterms, and recent local losses have intensified concerns. "Republicans are going to have to start thinking about the future," Geer said. "It's going to be hard, but at some point, they'll see it in their electoral interests."
Even loyal Trump voters express nuanced support. "We've got this idea that everyone who supports Trump is in a cult," said Julia Timson, a schoolteacher at the Cumberland County dinner. "No. If he's wrong, he's wrong. But he's the champion in your corner." Shane Wattenbarger, a construction contractor, added, "I think he's an arrogant prick. But for this country, that's what it needs."
What's at stake
A Democratic victory would not flip House control but could trigger Republican soul-searching ahead of 2026 midterms. For now, the race underscores a broader shift: in Trump country, economic anxiety is eclipsing cultural grievances, and the GOP's post-Trump identity remains unresolved.
