Ask Onix
Putin arrives in Delhi for high-stakes talks with Modi
Russian President Vladimir Putin began a two-day visit to India on Thursday, meeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi amid heightened geopolitical tensions and US efforts to curb New Delhi's ties with Moscow. The trip, which includes an annual bilateral summit, is expected to yield multiple trade and defense agreements, despite Washington's recent tariffs on Indian goods over its Russian oil imports.
Why India matters to Russia
India's status as the world's third-largest oil consumer has made it a critical market for Russia, particularly since Western sanctions over the Ukraine war slashed Moscow's access to European buyers. Before the 2022 invasion, Russian oil accounted for just 2.5% of India's imports. By 2025, that share had surged to 35%, driven by steep discounts offered by Moscow.
Beyond energy, Russia views India as a key partner in defense, a sector historically dominated by Soviet and Russian exports. Reports suggest Delhi may finalize deals for advanced fighter jets and air defense systems during Putin's visit. Additionally, Russia's labor shortages have increased its reliance on Indian skilled workers, further deepening economic ties.
Geopolitically, the Kremlin sees its relationship with India as proof that Western attempts to isolate Russia have failed. Putin's meetings with Modi-and his recent talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping-underscore Moscow's pivot toward a "multi-polar world," a narrative it has aggressively promoted since the Ukraine war began.
"The West, including Europe, has totally failed to isolate us. We have connections to Asia and the Global South-this is the future," said Andrei Kolesnikov, a columnist for Novaya Gazeta.
Modi's diplomatic tightrope
For Modi, Putin's visit arrives at a delicate moment. While India has long championed "strategic autonomy," maintaining ties with both Russia and the West, recent US pressure has complicated that balance. In October, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing Delhi's Russian oil purchases as indirect support for Moscow's war effort. Indian orders for Russian crude have since declined, but the tariffs have strained US-India relations to an "all-time low," according to analysts.
Modi faces competing demands: reassuring domestic audiences of his independence from Washington while avoiding actions that could derail trade talks with the US or alienate European allies. Just days before Putin's arrival, ambassadors from Germany, France, and the UK published a rare joint op-ed in an Indian newspaper, criticizing Russia's stance on Ukraine.
"For India, the challenge is strategic balance-protecting autonomy while navigating pressure from Washington and dependence on Moscow," noted the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank.
Trade imbalances and defense deals
Bilateral trade between India and Russia reached $68.72 billion by March 2025, up from $8.1 billion in 2020, largely due to India's increased oil purchases. However, this has skewed the trade balance heavily in Russia's favor-a dynamic Modi aims to correct. With Indian firms reducing oil imports to avoid US sanctions, both sides are exploring alternative sectors, particularly defense.
India's defense imports from Russia fell to 36% between 2020 and 2024, down from 72% a decade earlier, as Delhi diversified suppliers and boosted domestic production. Yet Russian hardware remains critical: India's air force relies on Sukhoi-30 jets, and its S-400 air defense systems played a pivotal role in a 2025 border clash with Pakistan. Reports indicate Delhi may seek to purchase Russia's S-500 systems and Su-57 stealth fighters, though sanctions-related delays have already pushed back S-400 deliveries to 2026.
Modi is also pushing to expand Indian exports to Russia, which currently lag behind. In 2025, Indian shipments of smartphones ($75.9 million), shrimp ($75.7 million), and meat ($63 million) accounted for a fraction of Russia's market, highlighting limited penetration in high-value sectors. Analysts suggest Modi will seek commitments to open Russia's economy to Indian goods, particularly once the Ukraine war ends and Moscow re-engages with global markets.
What's at stake
GTRI described Putin's visit as a negotiation over "risk, supply chains, and economic insulation." A modest outcome would secure continued oil and defense cooperation, while an ambitious deal could reshape regional trade dynamics. For Modi, the summit is a test of whether India can deepen ties with Russia without jeopardizing its relationships with the West-a balancing act that grows more precarious by the day.
As Putin and Modi meet, the world will watch whether Delhi can maintain its strategic autonomy-or if US pressure will force a recalibration of its long-standing partnership with Moscow.
