One year in: Trump’s inflation promises face mixed results

One year in: Trump's inflation promises face mixed results

One year after President Donald Trump's reelection-campaigning on a vow to "immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One"-official data reveals a nuanced picture: while some consumer costs have eased, others continue to climb, complicating his pledge to reverse inflation trends inherited from the Biden administration.

Grocery prices: modest rises, uneven relief

Federal figures show grocery prices rose 2.7% year-over-year through September 2025, with monthly increases recorded in all but one month (April) since Trump's January inauguration. The data spans a transition period including four months under President Biden, but economists attribute recent trends largely to Trump's policies.

Experts highlight two key drivers: tariffs-such as a 50% levy on Brazilian coffee, which supplies a third of U.S. consumption-and labor shortages tied to stricter immigration enforcement. David Ortega, a food economics professor, noted that undocumented workers comprise roughly 40% of agricultural labor. "Farms are raising wages to attract workers," he said, "but isolating those cost impacts on prices is nearly impossible right now."

Some staples defied the trend. Egg prices, which spiked to a record $6.23 per dozen in March due to avian flu, have since dropped to $3.49, below January's $4.93 level. Butter, ice cream, and frozen vegetables also fell slightly in price. White House spokesman Kush Desai credited these declines to Trump's "supply-side policies taming Biden's inflation crisis."

"The president of the United States has very little control over the price of food, especially in the short term."

David Ortega, food economics professor

Energy costs surge despite pledges

Trump's campaign promise to "slash electricity prices by half within 12-18 months" remains unmet. Residential rates climbed to 17.62 cents per kWh in August 2025, up from 15.94 cents in January, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts cite a confluence of factors:

• AI-driven demand: Data centers consuming vast energy for AI image generation.
• Policy shifts: Cuts to renewable subsidies and steel tariffs raising costs for new power infrastructure.
• Supply constraints: Delays in expanding generation capacity.

James Sweeney of Stanford's Precourt Institute called the 50% reduction pledge "technically impossible" at the time, noting that delivery infrastructure-"wires, transformers, and everything else"-accounts for a significant portion of costs. KPMG's Diane Swonk added that the surge disproportionately hurts lower-income households, who lack access to solar or renewables.

The White House countered that expanded coal, natural gas, and nuclear production is "the only viable way" to meet demand and lower prices long-term.

Cars and gasoline: tariffs offset partial gains

New car prices hit a record $50,000 in September, up from $48,283 in January, with tariffs adding at least 1 percentage point to annual inflation, per Cox Automotive's Erin Keating. "Manufacturers have delayed passing full tariff costs to consumers," she warned, "but 2026 will likely see sharper increases."

Gasoline prices presented a rare bright spot. While Trump's pledge to push prices "below $2 per gallon" fell short, the national average dipped from $3.125 in January to $3.079 in recent data-though the White House cited an alternative source showing a lower $2.97 average. Analysts attribute the decline to expanded domestic drilling, though global oil markets remain volatile.

"Tariffs in the auto industry over the last 12 months have been nothing but inflationary."

Erin Keating, Cox Automotive

Expert consensus: policy impacts emerge slowly

Economists agree that while Trump's tariffs and immigration policies are beginning to ripple through prices, isolating their effects remains challenging. KPMG's Swonk noted that "climate issues"-like Brazil's poor coffee harvest-compounded tariff impacts, while Ortega emphasized that labor market adjustments take time to reflect in grocery aisles.

The White House maintains that its energy and trade policies will yield long-term relief, though critics argue the short-term pain contradicts campaign promises of immediate cuts. With inflation still top of mind for voters, the coming months may test whether Trump's supply-side bets can outpace the headwinds his own policies have intensified.