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Government blames jihadists, but evidence points to criminal gangs
The Nigerian government has attributed a recent surge of mass abductions in the country's north-west and central regions to jihadist factions Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (Iswap), though security analysts and monitoring groups insist local criminal networks-known as "bandits"-are responsible. Authorities have yet to present supporting evidence for their claims.
Over the past two weeks, three high-profile kidnappings have rocked the region, including the abduction of more than 200 schoolchildren from St Mary's Catholic School in Kwara state. While ransom payments were criminalized in Nigeria, allegations persist that unofficial negotiations and payments continue behind closed doors.
Government stands by jihadist allegations
Presidential spokesman Sunday Dare told the BBC that "abundant data-both nationally and internationally-reveals clearly that Iswap are all over the place," alongside remnants of Boko Haram. He declined to confirm whether ransoms had been paid for recent releases, stating only that "whatever processes are involved-kinetic, non-kinetic, negotiations, etc-have been successful."
Dare reiterated President Bola Tinubu's pledge to secure the release of remaining hostages but offered no timeline. Historical cases, such as the 2014 Chibok schoolgirls abduction by Boko Haram, have seen captives held for years or killed in custody.
"Abundant data... reveals clearly that Iswap are all over the place. Also, whatever is left of Boko Haram, they are right there. They are the ones involved in this process."
Sunday Dare, Presidential Spokesperson
Analysts: Bandits, not jihadists, behind attacks
Security analyst Bulama Bukarti dismissed the government's claims, telling the BBC there is "no Iswap or Boko Haram cell resident in the north-west." Instead, he identified loosely organized Fulani militia groups-locally termed "bandits"-as the perpetrators. These gangs, often mounted on motorbikes, operate without centralized command and primarily target the north-west, far from Boko Haram's north-eastern strongholds.
The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled), an international monitoring group, corroborated Bukarti's assessment. Acled's analysis of the three recent mass abductions attributed all to Fulani militias, noting that the St Mary's school attack may have been "partly carried out to spite the government and achieve political objectives."
"Local displacement for mining has become the emerging pattern of the Fulani militia activities, as seen in Zamfara state and the Birnin Gwari area of Kaduna state."
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (Acled)
Mining and expansionist motives
Acled linked the Kwara state school kidnapping to a broader "Fulani expansionist drive," aimed at displacing local communities for illegal mining operations-a pattern observed in Zamfara and Kaduna states. The group described the attacks as part of a strategy to control resource-rich territories, rather than ideological or religious campaigns.
Jihadist activity confirmed in Borno
While analysts dispute jihadist involvement in the north-west, a separate incident in Borno state-Boko Haram's historic base-saw 13 teenage girls abducted shortly after the mass kidnappings. Experts agree this attack aligns with the modus operandi of jihadist groups operating in the region.
International scrutiny intensifies
The crisis has drawn global attention after former US President Donald Trump threatened military intervention, alleging Nigeria's government was "allowing the killing of Christians." Nigerian officials and analysts countered that victims span all faiths, with no evidence of targeted religious persecution.
Kidnapping as a lucrative industry
Kidnap-for-ransom schemes have flourished in Nigeria in recent years, involving a mix of criminal gangs, jihadists, and separatist factions. Despite official denials, ransom payments-though illegal-are widely suspected to fuel the trade. The government's refusal to acknowledge such payments has further clouded transparency efforts.
What's next?
With no clear resolution in sight, the stalemate between government claims and analyst findings risks prolonging the security crisis. President Tinubu's administration faces mounting pressure to:
- Provide verifiable evidence linking jihadists to the abductions, or
- Acknowledge the role of criminal networks and outline a strategy to dismantle them.
Meanwhile, communities in the north-west remain vulnerable to further attacks, as bandits exploit governance gaps and economic desperation to expand their operations.
