NFL midseason review: Chiefs struggle as Patriots, Bills surge in wide-open race

NFL's unpredictable 2025 season reaches halfway mark with no clear frontrunner

Nine weeks into the NFL's 2025 season, parity reigns as all 32 teams carry at least two losses, leaving the path to Super Bowl LIX in Santa Clara wide open. While the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills remain bookmakers' co-favorites, a shifting landscape-marked by resurgent franchises and slumping powerhouses-has scrambled playoff projections.

Bills and Eagles emerge as tentative frontrunners

Buffalo's 28-21 victory over Kansas City on Sunday reshaped the AFC hierarchy, positioning the Bills (6-3) as the conference's most consistent contender. Quarterback Josh Allen's elite play has masked defensive inconsistencies, though the Bills still trail the New England Patriots (7-2) in the AFC East-a division once considered theirs to lose.

In the NFC, the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) hold a narrow edge despite early-season stumbles. Their trade-deadline acquisitions-including a reinforced offensive line-signal aggression ahead of a playoff push. Yet questions linger after lackluster performances against the Commanders and Falcons.

Patriots' stunning turnaround under Mike Vrabel

New England's six-game winning streak, capped by a primetime upset in Buffalo, ranks among the league's biggest surprises. Under first-year coach Mike Vrabel, the Patriots (7-2) boast the NFL's sixth-stingiest defense and seventh-highest-scoring offense. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye leads the league in completion percentage (72.1%), silencing doubts about his readiness.

Their ascent contrasts sharply with the Indianapolis Colts' collapse. After starting 5-2 behind resurgent quarterback Daniel Jones-who led the NFL in total offense through Week 7-Indianapolis imploded in Week 8. Jones' five-turnover meltdown against Pittsburgh exposed flaws that now threaten their AFC South lead.

For the first time in a decade, Kansas City (4-5) risks missing the postseason entirely. Patrick Mahomes, sacked a record 15 times in Sunday's loss to Buffalo, faces a brutal stretch: two games against Denver (6-3), a rematch with the Chargers (5-4), and a showdown with Indianapolis. The Chiefs' nine-year AFC West dominance is under siege, with the Broncos-led by Russell Wilson's efficient play-holding a 1.5-game lead.

Injuries have compounded Kansas City's woes. Star tight end Travis Kelce missed two games with a knee strain, while the offensive line's struggles have left Mahomes vulnerable. "We've dug ourselves a hole," admitted coach Andy Reid. "But this team's never been defined by regular-season records."

Rookie sensations and breakout stars

New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart made history Sunday as the first rookie with four consecutive games featuring both a passing and rushing touchdown. His dual-threat prowess has injected life into a franchise starved for stability.

Elsewhere, Seattle's Sam Darnold (2,482 yards, 18 TDs) and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1,120 yards) have formed the NFL's most explosive duo. Smith-Njigba is on pace to shatter the single-season receiving record (2,000 yards). Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey (49ers) leads all players in combined yardage (1,423), while Jonathan Taylor (Colts) tops the rushing charts (987 yards).

Defensive standouts

Denver's defense, anchored by linebacker Josey Jewell (league-high 89 tackles), has allowed the fewest points per game (16.3) since Week 4. The Patriots' Matthew Judon (11 sacks) and Bills' Leonard Floyd (9 sacks) lead a resurgent pass-rush wave.

Division races heat up

AFC West: Denver's revival (6-3) has dethroned Kansas City, with the Chargers (5-4) lurking. A Week 11 Broncos-Chiefs clash could decide the division.

NFC West: The Rams (6-3), Seahawks (6-3), and 49ers (6-3) are locked in a three-way tie. San Francisco's injury-ravaged roster faces a critical test Sunday against Los Angeles.

NFC North: Green Bay (5-4) clings to a half-game lead over Detroit (5-4), but both teams have faltered against inferior opponents (Browns, Panthers).

AFC South: Indianapolis (5-4) leads Tennessee (4-5) despite recent struggles. The Colts' remaining schedule-featuring the Ravens, Chiefs, and Patriots-could swing the division.

Second-half storylines to watch

Can the Chiefs recover? Kansas City's bye week offers a chance to regroup, but their path includes four games against teams currently .500 or better.

Eagles' consistency test: Philadelphia's defense (22nd in yards allowed) must improve to fend off Dallas (5-4) in the NFC East.

Panthers' playoff drought: Carolina (5-4) seeks its first winning season since 2017. A Week 10 win over Atlanta would mark their first three-game streak in six years.

Injury watch: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Joe Burrow (Bengals), and Jayden Daniels (Commanders) remain day-to-day, with their teams' fates hinging on their returns.

"This league's about surviving the grind. We've got the pieces-now we've got to execute."

Drake Maye, Patriots quarterback, after Sunday's win