Ask Onix
Latino voters shift away from Trump after economic promises fall short
One year into Donald Trump's second term, his once-record support among Latino voters has declined sharply, with new polling showing economic dissatisfaction as the primary driver. The drop reflects growing frustration over persistent inflation and unmet campaign pledges.
Economic concerns overshadow 2024 gains
In the 2024 election, Trump secured 46% of the Latino vote-the highest share for any Republican in U.S. history. Many voters, like Pennsylvania constable Sam Negron, cited economic grievances, such as soaring grocery prices, as their motivation. Negron, a former Democrat who switched parties in 2019, said he backed Trump to restore economic strength, but now questions whether those promises have been fulfilled.
A CBS News poll conducted with the BBC reveals that Latino support for Trump has fallen to 38%, down from 49% in February. Among those who disapprove, 61% cite his handling of the economy, while 69% reject his approach to inflation. Most respondents judge economic performance based on everyday prices rather than broader indicators.
Inflation and affordability dominate frustrations
Despite White House claims of progress-including lower gas prices and increased foreign investment-many Latinos remain unconvinced. Inflation held steady at 2.7% in December, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven by rising food and housing costs. While prices are no longer surging at the same rate as under President Biden, they have not declined as Trump promised.
John Acevedo, a 74-year-old realtor in Pasadena, California, echoed widespread sentiment: "The economy is not doing well. The prices are up. He promised they would come down. They haven't."
"A lot of people around here voted for Trump because nothing was happening with Biden. But things are still getting tight. People who are low-income are definitely feeling the impact of the prices."
Moses Santana, North Philadelphia resident
Immigration policies spark mixed reactions
Trump's immigration enforcement has also alienated portions of the Latino electorate. His administration deported over 600,000 people between January 2024 and December, and workplace raids in cities like Oxnard, California, have left agricultural workers fearful. The CBS poll found that 70% of Latinos disapprove of Trump's immigration policies, with 63% opposing his implementation methods.
Rebeca Perez, a restaurant worker in Oxnard, criticized the raids: "This is supposed to be a free country for everybody, but it isn't." She noted that produce rotted in fields as workers avoided shifts due to fear of deportation.
Yet some supporters, like Negron, defend the crackdown. "As a human being, I feel for them. They're poor in their countries. But guess what? I'm poor in mine." Others, like Houston electrician Oscar Byron Sarmiento, acknowledge the policy's excesses. "There's a lot of people who are good people. Law-abiding immigrants. Yes, they're here illegally, but I don't think we need to go after these people."
Strategists warn of midterm risks
Republican strategist Mike Madrid, a Trump critic, argues that Latino voters are "completely turned" against the president, primarily over economic issues. He compared the shift to Democrats' 2024 losses, when Latino voters abandoned the party due to economic stagnation rather than embracing Republican policies.
"We [Latinos] have the weakest partisan anchor of any group and can reject both parties when they fail them or just aren't honest with them," Madrid said. With midterm elections approaching, the White House faces an uphill battle to reverse the trend.
Even loyal supporters, like cattle rancher Amanda Garcia near the Texas-Mexico border, express ambivalence. While she praises Trump's border policies, she criticizes his tariffs for disrupting markets. "Sometimes it's just him tweeting something [about trade], and it upsets someone, and it could really have an impact. I don't think he realizes that sometimes."
Looking ahead
Despite the challenges, some Trump backers remain hopeful. Crystal Sarmiento, wife of Oscar Byron Sarmiento, attributed the president's declining support to poor messaging rather than policy failures. "Right now Trump is trending in a lower direction, simply because of not being able to get in front of the messaging."
As the administration enters its second year, the Latino vote-comprising over 36 million eligible voters-remains a critical and volatile bloc, capable of swinging elections based on economic and social priorities.
