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Protests fade as Iran's security forces hold firm
Two weeks of unrest in Iran have ended with the regime still standing, despite economic strain and external military strikes. While demonstrators hoped for a rapid collapse, analysts say the Islamic Republic remains resilient-for now.
Economic crisis fuels public anger
Sanctions reimposed by the UK, Germany, and France in September have deepened Iran's financial woes. Food price inflation exceeded 70% in 2025, and the rial hit record lows in December. Yet the regime's security apparatus has so far prevented mass dissent from escalating into a broader uprising.
The machinery of repression
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a 150,000-strong force loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, leads the crackdown. Alongside it, the Basij militia-estimated at hundreds of thousands of volunteers-has suppressed protests with violence, including live fire on civilians.
Journalists recall the 2009 crackdown, when Basij members wielding clubs and firearms dispersed crowds within days. This time, a communications blackout has obscured the full scale of casualties, but reports suggest a similar pattern of swift suppression.
Negotiations and mixed signals
Facing pressure, Tehran has offered to resume nuclear talks with the U.S., though previous rounds failed to resolve disputes over ballistic missiles. President Donald Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on countries trading with Iran adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly given China's role as Iran's largest oil buyer.
A planned U.S.-China summit in April could further complicate matters, as Trump weighs prioritizing trade negotiations over Iran policy.
Lessons from history
The regime's survival hinges on the loyalty of its security forces-a lesson from Syria, where President Bashar al-Assad's sudden fall in late 2024 followed Russia and Iran's refusal to intervene. In Tunisia (2011) and Egypt (2011), military defections accelerated regime collapses.
Iran's opposition lacks unified leadership. Reza Pahlavi, son of the deposed Shah, has struggled to rally support, hampered by his family's legacy and ties to Israel.
A gradual decline, not a sudden fall
For now, the Islamic Republic appears stable, but economic strain and external pressure could erode its foundations over time. As one analyst noted, authoritarian regimes often decay slowly-before collapsing abruptly.
"The regime is not about to die, but it is under immense pressure," said a Tehran-based political observer.
