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Unrest persists as economic grievances fuel protests
Iran has entered its ninth consecutive day of demonstrations, with public anger rooted in soaring inflation, currency devaluation, and allegations of corruption among the ruling elite. The protests, which began peacefully on December 28, have since escalated into broader calls for political change, including demands for the removal of the Islamic Republic's leadership.
Economic collapse drives public outrage
Iran's economy is in dire straits, with official annual inflation hitting 42% and food prices surging by over 70%. Some essential goods have reportedly doubled in cost over the past year. The local currency has lost 80% of its value against the US dollar compared to 2024, exacerbating financial hardship for ordinary citizens.
While US-led sanctions have deepened the crisis, many Iranians blame internal corruption more than external pressures. High-profile court cases involving senior officials and their families have reinforced public perceptions that elites exploit the situation for personal gain, including through control of imports, oil revenue diversions, and money laundering networks. Government insiders have even acknowledged the role of so-called "sanctions profiteers" in worsening the economic turmoil.
From economic demands to political upheaval
The unrest began with merchants in Tehran's Grand Bazaar shuttering their shops in protest of volatile currency markets. Demonstrations quickly spread to students, small business owners, and other segments of society, with slogans shifting from economic grievances to outright opposition to the Islamic Republic. Chants targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have become a defining feature of the protests.
Though the current demonstrations have not yet matched the scale of the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement-sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in morality police custody-they have persisted longer than many expected. Security forces have responded with violence, and human rights groups report at least 20 deaths since the protests began.
US warnings add fuel to the fire
The response from Washington has been unusually direct. On the fifth day of unrest, US President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to Iranian leaders, stating the US was "locked and loaded" over the crackdown on protesters. This was followed by a US special forces operation in Venezuela targeting President Nicolás Maduro, further escalating tensions. Trump reiterated his warning on Sunday, raising concerns that external pressure could embolden demonstrators and prolong the unrest.
Such overt threats from a sitting US president while protests are ongoing are rare and mark a significant shift in rhetoric. Analysts warn that the combination of domestic instability and international pressure could push Iran's government into a corner, with unpredictable consequences.
Regional isolation compounds Iran's challenges
Iran's position in the Middle East has weakened considerably in recent years. The 12-day war with Israel in the summer of 2025, which drew direct US military intervention, left Iran's nuclear infrastructure and defense capabilities severely damaged. The conflict also disrupted Tehran's regional alliances, including the loss of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a key ally, and sustained Israeli strikes on Hezbollah's leadership in Lebanon.
The recent US operation in Venezuela, which resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife, has further constrained Iran's options abroad. Tehran had relied on Venezuela's oil sector and complex financial networks-often routed through China-to bypass sanctions. The disruption of these channels has exacerbated Iran's economic vulnerability at a time of mounting internal unrest.
An uncertain future for Iran's leadership
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, now facing one of the most precarious moments of his rule, has seen decades of strategic investments in regional proxies and nuclear infrastructure unravel in a short period. With Trump back in the White House and Benjamin Netanyahu leading Israel, Iran's leadership appears to have few viable diplomatic or strategic options to navigate the crisis without significant concessions.
The government's long-standing justification for prioritizing regional influence and nuclear development-arguing that such investments would ensure Iran's long-term security-now rings hollow for many citizens. As protests continue and external pressures mount, the regime's ability to maintain control at home appears increasingly fragile.
Information blackout complicates reporting
Independent reporting from inside Iran remains severely restricted. Journalists face intense pressure, and international news organizations are either barred from operating in the country or subjected to strict movement controls. As a result, much of the information about the protests comes from social media and firsthand accounts shared by demonstrators. However, the rise of AI-generated content and misinformation has made verification increasingly difficult, adding another layer of complexity to understanding the situation on the ground.
