India faces diplomatic dilemma over exiled Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina

India faces diplomatic dilemma over exiled Bangladesh leader Sheikh Hasina

India is navigating a complex diplomatic challenge as it shelters former Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who was sentenced to death in absentia by a Dhaka tribunal for alleged crimes during her crackdown on 2024 student protests. Her ousting last year cleared the way for Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to lead an interim government ahead of elections expected early 2026.

Hasina's 15-year tenure cemented Bangladesh as India's most reliable regional partner, delivering stability, economic integration, and a counterbalance to China's influence. But her violent suppression of dissent-culminating in her flight to India-has left New Delhi in a bind: Dhaka demands her extradition, while India, bound by political loyalty and strategic interests, refuses to comply, rendering her sentence unenforceable.

Four unpalatable options for New Delhi

Analysts outline a spectrum of high-risk choices for India, none without consequences. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia specialist at the Wilson Center, frames the dilemma:

• Extradition: Politically unthinkable. Hasina remains a cherished ally across India's political spectrum, and surrendering her would violate Delhi's principle of protecting friends, Kugelman notes.
• Status quo: Maintaining asylum risks escalating tensions once Bangladesh's new government assumes power post-elections, particularly if it adopts a more adversarial stance.
• Silencing Hasina: Pressuring her to avoid public statements-a non-starter, given her continued leadership of the Awami League and India's reluctance to enforce such restrictions.
• Third-country relocation: Finding another nation willing to host a figure with legal baggage and security demands is "fraught," Kugelman says, as few governments would welcome the liability.

Economic ties vs. political fallout

Bangladesh is India's largest South Asian trading partner, with bilateral trade hitting nearly $13 billion in 2024. India supplies critical energy (oil, LNG, electricity), infrastructure loans ($8-10 billion in concessional credit over a decade), and transit routes vital to Bangladesh's economy. Yet the relationship's asymmetry-rooted in India's 1971 role in Bangladesh's independence-now fuels resentment.

A recent survey by Dhaka's Centre for Alternatives revealed 75% of Bangladeshis view China favorably, compared to just 11% for India-a stark reversal tied to perceptions of Delhi's support for Hasina's authoritarian turn. The interim government under Yunus has accelerated a "de-Indianisation" of foreign policy, canceling judicial exchanges, renegotiating energy deals, and courting Beijing, Islamabad, and Ankara.

"India and Bangladesh share a complex interdependence-relying on each other for water, electricity, and more. It would be difficult for Bangladesh to function without India's cooperation."

Sanjay Bhardwaj, Professor of South Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University

Security stakes along a porous border

Beyond economics, India's 4,096-km (2,545-mile) border with Bangladesh-a mix of rivers and unguarded stretches-poses security risks. Instability in Dhaka could trigger refugee flows or extremist mobilization, complicating India's counterterrorism efforts and access to its restive northeastern states.

Avinash Paliwal of SOAS University of London advises patience: "India should not be in a hurry." Quiet engagement with Bangladesh's military and political stakeholders, he argues, could buy time until elections clarify Dhaka's trajectory. "If the interim government holds credible elections and a new administration takes charge, it may open avenues to renegotiate the relationship and limit damage," Paliwal says.

Long-term lessons for India's neighborhood policy

The crisis exposes a deeper strategic question: Did India over-invest in Hasina at the cost of broader stability? Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, a former Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, dismisses moral critiques: "Foreign policy isn't driven by public perception or morality. You deal with whoever is in power, is friendly, and helps you get your job done."

Yet the fallout underscores the fragility of personalist diplomacy. As Kugelman warns, "The key is how much Bangladesh's next government lets the Hasina factor impact bilateral relations. If it holds the relationship hostage, progress will be tough." With elections looming, the next 12-18 months may determine whether the bond survives-or whether India's most dependable ally becomes its most complicated neighbor.