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From Two Firms to Global Dominance: China's EV Battery Ascent
In 2005, China had just two electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers. By 2025, it produces over 75% of the world's lithium-ion cells, hosting six of the top 10 global battery makers. The transformation began with a fleet of 50 Olympic e-buses in 2008-a symbolic first step that laid the foundation for an industry now indispensable to the world's net-zero ambitions.
The Olympic Spark
China's push into EV batteries traces back to its 2001 Olympic bid. By 2003, researchers like Mo Ke at the Beijing New Materials Development Centre were assessing the nation's nascent lithium battery sector. Their findings were stark: only two companies-Mengguli and Wanxiang-produced EV batteries, and the entire industry could gather just 200 attendees at its first conference in 2005.
Yet the 2008 Games became a proving ground. Fifty lithium-ion-powered buses ferried athletes and officials, showcasing China's potential. Meanwhile, future giants like CATL (then an ATL subsidiary) and BYD (a newcomer to autos) were quietly positioning themselves for the coming boom.
Policy as a Catalyst
China's rise wasn't accidental. A 2006 national science plan prioritized "low-emission and new-energy vehicles," targeting technological self-sufficiency by 2020. By 2009, the "10 Cities and Thousand Vehicles" program deployed NEVs nationwide, backed by subsidies and charging infrastructure. The 2015 "white list" policy further shielded domestic firms: only Chinese battery suppliers could qualify for subsidies, sidelining foreign rivals like South Korea's Samsung SDI.
"It was a walled garden," says analyst Xie Yanmei. "The government didn't just fund R&D-it engineered the entire ecosystem."
Scale and Survival Instinct
Policy alone didn't guarantee success. Chinese firms excelled at mass production and cost control. CATL, spun off from ATL in 2011, leveraged automation and vertical integration-owning suppliers to secure materials and slash expenses. BYD's 2020 "blade battery" innovation (cobalt-free, safer, and cheaper) exemplified this agility.
"They have a relentless survival instinct," notes advisor Song Xin. "When Western startups faltered post-2008, China's stimulus funneled billions into NEVs, turning crisis into opportunity."
Global Domination by the Numbers
Today, China controls 85% of global battery production capacity. CATL alone holds 40% of the EV battery market-double BYD's share. The "dual-credit" system (modeled on California's ZEV mandate) forced automakers to adopt Chinese batteries or face penalties, cementing dominance.
The Talent Pipeline
Behind the hardware lies a workforce of "practicing engineers"-over 30,000 at CATL and BYD alone. These specialists bridge lab research and factory floors, rapidly iterating designs to meet market demands. "They're not just PhDs or assembly-line workers," says Cory Combs of Trivium China. "They're the reason China turns prototypes into products faster than anyone."
Can the West Catch Up?
Experts agree: replicating China's ecosystem-industrial clusters, vertical supply chains, and state-backed scale-is nearly impossible. Solid-state batteries (a potential next-gen breakthrough) offer a glimmer of hope, but China's 20-year head start in manufacturing know-how remains a formidable barrier.
"There will not be a time I can envision another country catching up," says Taylor Ogan of Snow Bull Capital. "They're just so much further ahead."
Taylor Ogan, CEO, Snow Bull Capital
Yet collaboration may be the only path forward. Anders Hove of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies argues that Western firms must partner with Chinese manufacturers to scale breakthroughs-"or risk irrelevance."
