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From coup leader to elected president
Guinea's Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 coup, will be inaugurated as the country's elected president on Saturday after securing 87% of the vote in December's election. The 41-year-old former special forces commander, who once promised not to run for office, has transitioned from military fatigues to civilian attire while maintaining tight control over political dissent.
A carefully crafted public image
Doumbouya's public persona has evolved since the coup, with social media posts depicting him in tracksuits, traditional boubous, or baseball caps-often cycling through Conakry or inaugurating schools and infrastructure. Analysts say this shift aims to distance him from his military roots and present him as a leader close to the people.
"This is about projecting an image of a civilian leader, someone representative of the people," said Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at Control Risks, a Dakar-based security firm.
Beverly Ochieng, Control Risks
Yet critics argue the change is superficial. Aïssatou Kanté, a researcher at the Institute of Security Studies, told the BBC: "I'm not sure he has truly transitioned from a military man. The military mindset remains, even if he's pushing for a return to civilian rule."
Democratic credentials under scrutiny
Doumbouya's path to power began with a promise to restore democracy after ousting President Alpha Condé, accusing his government of trampling citizens' rights. However, his tenure has been marked by restrictions on political freedoms. Key opposition parties were suspended, and major challengers barred from December's election, which exiled former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo dismissed as a "charade" with "fabricated" results.
Human rights groups have raised alarms over disappearances. Activists Oumar Sylla (Foniké Menguè) and Mamadou Billo Bah vanished in July 2024, with suspicions pointing to military involvement. Reporters Without Borders also reported the year-long disappearance of journalist Habib Marouane Camara, noting a climate of self-censorship among media outlets.
Mixed public support amid economic promises
Despite controversies, Doumbouya retains significant popularity. Afrobarometer polling showed trust in him rising from 46% in 2022 to 53% in 2024. His emphasis on national sovereignty-particularly in economic policy-resonates in a country rich in resources but plagued by poverty.
The Simandou iron ore project, one of the world's largest untapped deposits, began exports last month. The government pledges to reinvest revenues into infrastructure, health, and education, while retaining local processing to maximize benefits. Doumbouya's cancellation of mining contracts deemed unfavorable to Guinea has drawn praise but also legal challenges, including a lawsuit from a UAE-based firm.
"This resource nationalism makes him look like a local hero. He's seen as fighting for citizens' rights, even if it disrupts business," Ochieng noted.
Balancing international relations
Unlike other West African coup leaders, Doumbouya has avoided outright rejection of France, Guinea's former colonial power. Despite his French education, service in the French Foreign Legion, and marriage to a French national, he has not been labeled a "puppet of Paris." His pragmatic approach extends to partnerships with China and Western firms in the mining sector.
A presidency defined by Simandou
Doumbouya's success may hinge on the Simandou project. With 3 billion tonnes of iron ore, it could reshape Guinea's economy-and his legacy. In his New Year's address, he called for national unity and "fully assumed sovereignty," a message likely to dominate Saturday's inauguration.
As he prepares to take the oath, Guinea's president-elect faces a dual challenge: delivering on economic promises while addressing concerns over democratic backsliding.
