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Military seizes power amid election turmoil
Guinea-Bissau's military announced a takeover last Wednesday, citing a plot to destabilize the nation. However, analysts and regional leaders question whether the move was genuine or staged by President Umaro Sissoco Embaló to avoid an electoral defeat.
Key events unfold in rapid succession
Gunfire erupted near the presidential palace in the capital, Bissau, on Wednesday morning. Soldiers detained Embaló, along with opposition figures and senior officials, including former Prime Minister Domingos Pereira and Interior Minister Botché Candé. The military later appeared on state television, claiming they had thwarted a conspiracy involving unnamed politicians and a "well-known drug baron."
Election results, due the following day, were never released. Armed men raided the electoral commission's headquarters, destroying paperwork and the main server storing vote tallies. The junta suspended the electoral process indefinitely.
Skepticism over coup authenticity
Embaló's swift departure from Guinea-Bissau raised eyebrows. After his release, he boarded a Senegalese military flight to Dakar, accompanied by his family and luggage. Opposition lawmaker Flávio Baticã Ferreira called the scene "suspicious," noting that deposed leaders rarely leave so easily. "He was escorted like a tourist," Ferreira told the BBC.
"The way he left Guinea-Bissau, without any obstacle or resistance... all of this shows that it was not a coup."
Flávio Baticã Ferreira, former MP
Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, who observed the election, dismissed the takeover as a "ceremonial coup." He pointed out that Embaló was allowed to speak to foreign media-a rarity for detained leaders. Senegalese Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko also cast doubt on the military's narrative.
Political tensions and drug trafficking backdrop
The coup followed a contentious presidential election. Embaló, 53, sought a second term, facing his closest rival, Fernando Dias da Costa. Dias was backed by Pereira, who was barred from running after authorities claimed he filed candidacy papers late. Both Embaló and Dias had claimed victory before results were announced.
Analysts suggest the military may have acted to prevent a stalemate. Ryan Cummings, a political analyst, said Embaló's history of delaying elections and dissolving parliament fueled suspicions of self-interest. However, he acknowledged the armed forces might have intervened independently to avert chaos.
Guinea-Bissau's reputation as a drug trafficking hub adds another layer of complexity. The UN has labeled it a "narco-state," with its remote islands serving as transit points for cocaine en route to Europe. The junta alleged a "well-known drug baron" was involved in the destabilization plot but provided no evidence.
Mixed reactions and uncertain future
Protests erupted in Bissau over the weekend, with hundreds demanding Pereira's release and the publication of election results. Three civil society groups called for a general strike and civil disobedience to restore "electoral truth."
Reactions among citizens are divided. Some, like resident Suncar Gassama, support the military if it improves living conditions. "I am not against the military regime as long as they deliver," he told the BBC. Others, including Ferreira, describe the atmosphere as "tense" and unpredictable.
Gen. Horta N'Tam, a close ally of Embaló, was sworn in as interim leader for a one-year transition. His appointment has further fueled speculation about the coup's authenticity. Meanwhile, Embaló has relocated to Congo-Brazzaville after leaving Senegal, reportedly upset by Sonko's characterization of the takeover as a "sham." Dias, who evaded arrest, has sought asylum in Nigeria.
