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Ecuador Rejects Foreign Military Bases in Blow to US Regional Plans
Ecuadorian voters have decisively rejected a constitutional amendment that would have allowed foreign military bases to return to the country, dealing a setback to both President Daniel Noboa's security agenda and US ambitions to expand its presence in the eastern Pacific.
The referendum, held Sunday, marks the latest chapter in Ecuador's struggle against escalating drug-related violence. Noboa had argued that lifting the 2008 ban-enacted under former leftist President Rafael Correa-would bolster efforts to combat organized crime, which has surged as Ecuador became a key transit hub for cocaine smuggled from neighboring Colombia and Peru.
The US Stakes in Ecuador
The outcome thwarts US hopes of re-establishing a military foothold in Ecuador, 16 years after the closure of its coastal base. Washington had viewed the referendum as a potential gateway to deeper security cooperation, particularly as Ecuador grapples with record violence tied to drug trafficking. About 70% of the world's cocaine flows through the country, according to Noboa's government.
US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem's recent visit to Ecuador, where she toured military facilities alongside Noboa, underscored Washington's interest. Noboa has framed his crackdown on cartels as a "war" and sought foreign military support, including talks with US officials on regional security and migration.
Broader Reforms Rejected
Beyond the military base question, voters also opposed three other proposals: ending public funding for political parties, reducing the size of Congress, and convening a constitutional assembly to rewrite Ecuador's constitution. Noboa had pitched these changes as necessary to strengthen crime-fighting measures and streamline governance, but critics warned they risked undermining democratic checks and exacerbating inequality.
"We will respect the people's decision," Noboa said in a statement following the results, acknowledging the defeat of his flagship reforms.
Security Crackdown Under Scrutiny
Noboa's presidency has been defined by a militarized response to crime, including deploying soldiers to patrol streets-a move supporters credit with reducing violence but which opponents decry as authoritarian. The referendum's failure leaves his strategy in question, even as his government celebrated a high-profile victory: the capture of Wilmer "Pipo" Chavarria, leader of the notorious Los Lobos gang, in a joint operation with Spanish police.
Chavarria, who had faked his death and directed criminal operations from Europe, was arrested on referendum day. Both Ecuador and the US classify Los Lobos as a terrorist organization, linking it to drug trafficking, murder, and illegal mining.
Regional Tensions Escalate
The vote coincides with a broader US military buildup in the Caribbean, including the deployment of its largest warship and bomber planes. Since April, the US has conducted at least 21 strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, killing 83 people. Critics argue the strikes lack transparency, with no public evidence confirming the identities of those killed, while some legal experts question their compliance with international law.
Speculation is growing over whether the US may extend its operations to target land-based facilities in Venezuela, where President Nicolás Maduro faces longstanding US accusations-vehemently denied-of leading a narco-trafficking network. Analysts suggest the military presence could also serve as leverage to pressure Maduro's government.
What's Next?
With the referendum defeated, Noboa's government must now navigate its security strategy without the foreign military partnerships it sought. The rejection of constitutional changes further complicates efforts to overhaul Ecuador's legal framework, leaving unresolved the deeper social issues-poverty, education gaps, and healthcare access-that critics argue fuel the country's violence.
