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Record-low birth rate amid population decline
China's birth rate dropped to an unprecedented 5.63 births per 1,000 people in 2025, the lowest since the Communist Party came to power in 1949, government data revealed on Monday. Meanwhile, the death rate climbed to 8.04 per 1,000, the highest since 1968, as the country's population shrank by 3.39 million to 1.4 billion-marking the fourth consecutive year of decline and a faster pace than in 2024.
Government incentives fail to reverse trend
Despite a series of policy measures aimed at encouraging larger families, China's fertility rate remains among the world's lowest, at roughly one birth per woman-well below the replacement rate of 2.1. In 2016, authorities abandoned the decades-long one-child policy in favor of a two-child limit, later expanding it to three children per couple in 2021. More recently, the government introduced financial incentives, including a 3,600 yuan ($500) subsidy per child under three, while some provinces have added their own bonuses, such as extended maternity leave.
Controversial measures and public resistance
Some of the latest policies have drawn criticism. A 13% tax on contraceptives, including condoms and birth control pills, has raised concerns about unintended pregnancies and rising HIV rates. Meanwhile, public sentiment reflects broader hesitation. A Beijing resident told the BBC in 2021, "I have very few peers who have children, and if they do, they're obsessed with securing the best nanny or enrolling their kids in top schools. It sounds exhausting."
Economic and social challenges ahead
China's demographic shift poses significant risks to its economy, exacerbating labor shortages and weakening consumer demand. The United Nations projects the country's population could halve by 2100. Compounding the issue, a growing elderly population is left increasingly reliant on state support, even as pension funds dwindle. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences warned that time is running out to secure adequate resources for retirees.
Regional trends and high costs of child-rearing
China is not alone in facing low fertility rates-neighbors like South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan grapple with similar challenges. However, China also ranks among the most expensive places to raise a child, according to a 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute. Beyond financial pressures, younger generations cite lifestyle preferences, career priorities, and the emotional toll of parenting as key deterrents to starting families.
Future outlook
Analysts say China's demographic decline is likely irreversible in the near term, with long-term consequences for its economic growth and social stability. Policymakers face mounting pressure to implement more effective solutions, from workplace reforms to expanded childcare support, to mitigate the fallout of an aging society.
