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Canada's Carney plays waiting game as US trade talks stall ahead of elections
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney showed little urgency this weekend to restart trade negotiations with the US, brushing off questions about his last conversation with President Donald Trump by saying, "Who cares? It's a detail. I'll speak to him again when it matters."
The remark underscores a deliberate slowdown in talks, which hit a snag last month after Trump took issue with an Ontario-funded US advertisement featuring Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. Despite the pause, Carney may meet Trump in Washington next week during the FIFA World Cup draw-an event tied to the 2026 tournament, co-hosted by Canada, the US, and Mexico. No formal meeting has been confirmed, according to Canadian media sources.
Strategic delay or missed opportunity?
Analysts suggest both leaders are engaged in calculated posturing. "Trump doesn't want to appear desperate for a deal, and Carney's avoiding the same perception," said Chris Sands, director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University. "But there's real money at stake-this isn't just theater."
Canada's economy remains heavily exposed: roughly 75% of its exports go to the US, though most goods are shielded from tariffs under the existing free trade pact. Still, sector-specific levies-including 50% on metals and 25% on automobiles-have strained key industries. Carney has countered criticism by emphasizing his long-term goal to double Canada's non-US exports within a decade, recently courting trade partners in the UAE and at the G20 summit in South Africa.
Tariffs squeeze both sides of the border
The US has rolled back some food tariffs this month and hinted at easing metal levies if Canada meets production-shift demands. Yet Canadian aluminium producers, who initially absorbed tariff costs to honor US contracts, now see leverage as American stockpiles dwindle. "Time is on our side," said Jean Simard, head of the Aluminium Association of Canada. "The US consumes far more aluminium than it produces-they'll feel the pinch first."
In Manitoba, heavy machinery tariffs have sparked alarm. "People in this sector are deeply concerned," said Richard Madan, the province's trade representative. Meanwhile, a November Fox News poll revealed 76% of US voters view the economy negatively-a 9-point jump since July-amplifying pressure on Trump ahead of 2026 midterms. "Affordability is a political liability," Madan noted, "and tariffs aren't helping."
Political heat at home
Carney's critics accuse him of downplaying job losses. The opposition Conservatives slammed his "poor choice of words" over the weekend, arguing he has failed to deliver on campaign promises to secure a trade "win" for Canada. Yet with the USMCA (CUSMA) review looming in 2026-and public hearings set for early December-business groups on both sides may push for progress.
"The private sector will demand action," Sands predicted. "That gives Carney an opening to ask, 'What can we do?' and restart talks on his terms." For now, though, the prime minister's strategy hinges on patience-and the calculation that US domestic pressures will force Trump's hand first.
