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One-point tennis contest launches at Australian Open
This month's Australian Open will feature a parallel event where amateurs and professionals compete in single-point matches for a A$1 million prize. Organizers hope the format will create unpredictable upsets.
How the competition works
The One Point Slam will include 48 players: 24 professionals, eight amateurs who won state championships in 2025, eight qualifiers, and eight wildcards-including celebrities. Matches consist of a single point, replacing traditional sets and games.
To win the A$1 million prize (£490,000/$672,000), a player must triumph in five or six points. Top-ranked stars like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Iga Świątek, and Coco Gauff are confirmed participants.
The math behind the upsets
Traditional tennis minimizes luck by requiring players to win multiple points, games, and sets. The longer the match, the more likely the better player prevails. A mathematical formula shows that a player's chance of winning increases with the number of points played, growing as the square root of the total required.
By reducing matches to a single point, the One Point Slam maximizes unpredictability. Even amateurs have a slim-but real-chance to defeat elite players, as skill differences shrink when luck plays a larger role.
Why sports tweak scoring rules
Other sports have adjusted formats to balance skill and excitement. Table tennis, for example, switched from first-to-21 points to first-to-11 in 2001, while increasing the number of games from two to four. The change kept the overall skill-to-luck ratio similar but made matches more engaging.
The principle extends beyond sports. Larger juries or repeated medical tests reduce randomness by increasing sample size, making outcomes more reliable.
Will an amateur win?
While the odds favor professionals, the one-point format gives amateurs their best shot. Even if they lose, taking a world No. 1 to match point would be a remarkable achievement.
"The pressure alone could cause an amateur to crack, but the math shows this format offers the best chance for an upset," tournament analysts noted.
What's next
The One Point Slam runs alongside the Australian Open, with matches scheduled throughout the tournament. Fans can expect high-stakes drama in just a single serve.
