Ask Onix
Countdown begins for 2026 World Cup in North America
The 2026 FIFA World Cup draw has been completed, marking the start of the countdown to next summer's tournament across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. With six spots still undecided through March play-offs, attention turns to the teams poised to contend for the trophy in New York.
Favorites take shape amid varied group challenges
Germany, Spain, and Belgium secured the most favorable groups based on FIFA rankings, while the Netherlands and France face stiffer tests. England, which qualified with a flawless record-winning all matches without conceding-will open against Croatia, a team brimming with experience.
Spain, fresh off their Euro 2024 victory, remains a top contender, bolstered by teenage sensation Lamine Yamal. Opta's supercomputer gives Spain a 17% chance of winning, followed by France (14.1%) and England (11.8%). France, runners-up in 2022, went unbeaten in European qualifying under Didier Deschamps, though their reliance on Kylian Mbappé raises questions.
Germany, despite an uneven qualifying campaign, is also in the mix, with attacking talents like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz poised to make an impact. Meanwhile, defending champions Argentina, led by Lionel Messi, aim to become the first team to retain the World Cup outside their home continent.
Dark horses and regional dynamics
Brazil's inconsistent qualifying form-finishing fifth in South America-hasn't dampened bookmakers' optimism, ranking them fourth. Japan, unbeaten in Asian qualifying, and Morocco, which dominated African qualifying, could disrupt traditional powerhouses. Portugal, with Cristiano Ronaldo in his final World Cup, and Italy, if they navigate the play-offs, remain threats.
Hosting the tournament in peak summer raises concerns about extreme heat. Research from Queen's University Belfast warns that temperatures at 14 of the 16 stadiums could exceed safe levels. South American and African teams may adapt better, while European sides like England have pushed for later kick-off times.
Group-stage battles and expert insights
England's group includes Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, with former striker Dion Dublin cautioning against underestimating Croatia's experience. Spain faces Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, while France draws Senegal, Norway, and a play-off winner.
"I always worry about Croatia. They have so much experience and quality," Dublin said on BBC Radio 5 Live. "Ghana can pull off incredible performances-they're a strong African nation that will make it difficult."
Dion Dublin, former England striker
European football journalist Julien Laurens praised Spain's consistency under Luis de la Fuente but expressed uncertainty about Germany's defensive stability. South American analyst Tim Vickery noted Brazil's satisfaction with their draw, citing evening kick-offs and Carlo Ancelotti's tactical adjustments as advantages.
"If Ancelotti can make that attacking talent fire, nobody will relish facing Brazil," Vickery said.
Tim Vickery, South American football journalist
Key storylines and logistical hurdles
Argentina's quest to defend their title is historic, with Vickery highlighting their depth beyond Messi. However, African nations face a grueling schedule, with the Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) beginning later this month.
The tournament's vast geography-spanning three countries and 16 stadiums-poses challenges for teams adjusting to travel and climate. While hosting could benefit the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, the scattered venues may offset home-field advantages.
With the final team allocations to be announced on Saturday, every marginal advantage will be scrutinized as nations prepare for a summer of high-stakes football.
