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Trump claims historic low in US crime rates
President Donald Trump asserted this month that crime and murder rates in the United States have fallen to their lowest levels in 125 years, crediting his administration's law-and-order policies. However, crime data experts caution that while violent crime has declined significantly, the 125-year claim remains unverified.
Violent crime trends: A closer look
The FBI tracks violent offenses reported to police, including homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. In 2024, the violent crime rate dropped to 348.6 incidents per 100,000 people-the lowest since 1969, according to an analysis of FBI data by crime researcher Jeff Asher. His study adjusts for changes in the FBI's definition of rape to ensure consistent comparisons over time.
While the FBI has not yet released full 2025 data, preliminary figures show a 10% decline in violent crimes through October 2025, continuing a downward trend from 2023 and 2024. Asher predicts 2025 could see the lowest property crime rate ever recorded and the lowest violent crime rate since 1968.
The 125-year claim: What the data shows
The White House cited a study by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) to support Trump's assertion that homicide rates may reach a 125-year low in 2025. The CCJ report estimates a rate of 4.0 homicides per 100,000 residents, which would be the lowest since 1900 if confirmed. However, the FBI only began consistently publishing crime data in 1960, forcing researchers to rely on public health records for earlier trends.
Ernesto Lopez, a co-author of the CCJ study, acknowledged uncertainties: "If the FBI revises 2024 homicide rates downward or if 2025 figures exceed current estimates, 2025 may not set a record-but it would still rank among the lowest rates since 1900."
A survey of 67 major US police departments found a 19% drop in homicides from January to September 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
What's driving the decline?
The White House attributed the drop in violent crime to Trump's policies, including increased federal support for cities, stricter immigration enforcement, and backing for law enforcement. However, crime experts point to broader post-pandemic trends that began before his second term.
"A renewed focus on crime prevention-such as policing high-risk areas and programs targeting social skills and cognitive behavioral therapy-likely contributed to the decline. Many of these strategies were paused during the pandemic and have since resumed."
Alex Piquero, Criminology Professor, University of Miami
Adam Gelb, president of the CCJ, noted that societal shifts after COVID-19 may have played a role, including the return of schools, workplaces, and social programs, which reduced stress and stabilized daily routines. He also cited reduced alcohol consumption as a factor in fewer violent incidents.
Similar declines have been observed in other Western nations. In England and Wales, homicides fell to their lowest level since 2003 in the year ending September 2025. "Most Western countries have seen comparable drops, though their baseline crime rates remain lower than the US," Piquero added.
Experts urge caution on causes
While the downward trend in violent crime is clear, experts caution against attributing it to a single cause. Gelb emphasized the difficulty of isolating specific drivers, stating, "The factors behind the decline are complex and interconnected."
The FBI is expected to release final 2025 crime data in the coming months, which will provide further clarity on whether the US has achieved a historic low in homicides.
