Ask Onix
Rubio arrives in India for high-stakes diplomatic tour
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Kolkata on Saturday for a four-day visit to India, as the country grapples with an energy supply crisis and strained trade relations with Washington. The trip includes stops in Delhi, Jaipur, and Agra, with energy security and bilateral trade topping the agenda.
Energy crisis looms over talks
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz-triggered by US and Israeli military strikes on Iran in February-has disrupted global oil shipments, hitting India particularly hard. The country imports over 80% of its energy needs, leaving its 1.4 billion people vulnerable to shortages in fuel and cooking gas.
Rubio acknowledged India's challenges, stating, "We want to sell them as much energy as they'll buy. The US is at historic levels of production and exports." However, analysts warn that replacing Iranian and Middle Eastern supplies with US shipments would be costly and logistically complex.
"Energy security will dominate this visit because the Iran situation won't be resolved soon," said Vineet Prakash, associate professor of US studies at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Vineet Prakash, JNU
Trade deficit and tariff disputes
The US goods trade deficit with India surged to $58.2 billion in 2025, a 27.1% increase from the previous year. While India has pledged to boost US imports-including energy, aircraft, and technology-worth $500 billion, experts question the feasibility of such targets. Current bilateral trade stands at a fraction of that figure.
Tensions eased slightly after the US reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 10% this year, following a Supreme Court ruling. The move followed India's commitment to increase purchases of American products. However, sectors like agriculture and dairy remain heavily protected under proposed trade deals.
Despite tariff cuts, India's exports to the US remained stable at $87.3 billion in the year ending March 2026, with a 0.9% year-on-year increase. April's shipments rose to $8.5 billion, reflecting the positive impact of lower levies, though future trends remain uncertain.
Geopolitical friction and the Quad
Rubio's visit occurs amid lingering disputes over trade and regional security. Delhi has rejected US claims that President Trump mediated last year's India-Pakistan conflict, reaffirming its stance against third-party intervention. Meanwhile, Trump's praise for Pakistani army chief Asim Munir has further strained relations.
On Tuesday, Rubio will attend a Quad foreign ministers' meeting in Delhi, ahead of a potential leaders' summit later this year. The Quad-comprising the US, India, Australia, and Japan-has seen waning US enthusiasm under Trump, who now favors a different approach to countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific.
India, set to host a BRICS summit in September, must balance its ties with Washington and Beijing. Analysts say Delhi will assess Rubio's statements on the Quad before making firm commitments.
Diplomatic tightrope
India's reluctance to join US-led military efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz underscores its cautious stance on the Iran conflict. While Rubio is unlikely to publicly address Pakistan during his visit, trade and regional security will dominate closed-door discussions.
As Prakash noted, "Any talks on Pakistan will stay behind closed doors." With energy, trade, and geopolitics in flux, Rubio's visit could shape the trajectory of US-India relations in the coming months.
