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Updated 22 May 2026 - Washington escalates pressure on Havana amid fuel shortages and economic crisis.
US indictment targets Cuba's former leader
The United States has filed murder charges against 94-year-old Raúl Castro, Cuba's former president, over the 1996 downing of two civilian aircraft by Cuban fighter jets. The move has intensified speculation that Havana could become Washington's next target for regime change, following similar actions in Venezuela and Panama.
Military intervention remains a possibility
While President Donald Trump has dismissed the need for escalation, some US lawmakers and officials have openly advocated for decisive action. Florida Senator Rick Scott suggested that Castro should face the same fate as Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, who was captured by US commandos in January and brought to New York on drug and weapons charges.
Analysts acknowledge that extracting Castro is militarily feasible but fraught with risks. Adam Isacson, a regional expert at the Washington Office on Latin America, noted that Castro's symbolic value ensures heavy security, though his advanced age could simplify an operation. However, Isacson cautioned that removing Castro-who stepped down as president in 2018-would likely have limited impact on Cuba's power structure, where he now serves as a figurehead.
"The dynasty of the Castro family is influential, but not central to what they built. For domestic political reasons, it would probably be a hit. They'd love to humiliate the Castros and get one of the original revolutionaries from 1959 behind bars. But the strategic value of that is questionable."
Adam Isacson, Washington Office on Latin America
Negotiated transition or economic collapse?
US officials, including Trump, have hinted at the possibility of new leadership emerging in Havana. The administration has engaged with Cuban figures, including Castro's grandson, Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, and Interior Minister Lázaro Álvarez Casas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US prefers a "negotiated agreement" but warned that Cuba's system "just doesn't work."
Potential US demands include economic liberalization, increased foreign investment, greater involvement by Cuban exile groups, and the expulsion of Russian or Chinese intelligence agencies. However, experts argue that Cuba lacks a clear successor akin to Venezuela's Delcy Rodríguez, complicating any transition. Michael Shifter, a Georgetown University professor, noted that power dynamics in Cuba differ significantly from those in Venezuela.
A third scenario involves Cuba's economic collapse under sustained US pressure. Trump has claimed that no escalation is necessary, arguing that the island is already "falling apart." Yet analysts warn that while the economy is in crisis-with daily blackouts and severe food shortages-the Cuban state's security apparatus remains intact.
"The Cuban economy can collapse, and is collapsing... but the state still functions, especially on the security side."
Michael Shifter, Georgetown University
Risks of mass migration and instability
Should Cuba's government collapse, experts predict a potential exodus of citizens, particularly toward the US. Isacson noted that recent Cuban arrivals have faced restricted asylum access under Trump, raising concerns about how Florida and other regions would manage an influx. He expressed surprise that such migration has not already materialized, given the island's dire conditions.
"People are probably subsisting on 1,000 or 1,500 calories a day, and are not able to get basic healthcare. You'd think that people would already be building their boats."
Adam Isacson, Washington Office on Latin America
Uncertain path forward
The Trump administration's strategy remains unclear, with no definitive timeline or preferred outcome. While military intervention, negotiated transition, and economic collapse each present distinct risks, the White House has yet to signal a concrete plan. For now, Cuba's future hangs in the balance as Washington ratchets up pressure on the island's 66-year-old Communist government.
