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Battle of endurance: US and Iran test weapons resilience
As the conflict between the United States and Iran enters its second week, both nations are signaling confidence in their military capabilities, though analysts warn that sustained combat could strain even the most robust arsenals. While US President Donald Trump asserts America possesses a "virtually unlimited supply" of critical weapons, Iran's defense ministry counters that it can "resist the enemy" longer than anticipated.
Rapid depletion of stockpiles raises concerns
The pace of operations has been relentless since hostilities began. Both sides are consuming munitions at rates exceeding production capacity, a trend that could shape the conflict's trajectory. The Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) reports that the US and Israel have executed over 2,000 airstrikes, each involving multiple weapons. Meanwhile, Iran has launched 571 missiles and 1,391 drones, many of which have been intercepted.
Western officials note a sharp decline in Iran's missile launches-from hundreds on the first day to dozens currently. US Central Command (Centcom) states that Iran's ballistic missile strikes have dropped by 86% since the conflict's onset, with a 23% decrease in the past 24 hours alone. Drone launches have also fallen by 73%, suggesting Iran may be struggling to maintain its initial tempo or deliberately conserving resources.
Air supremacy shifts the balance
With US and Israeli forces now dominating Iranian airspace, Tehran's air defenses have been largely neutralized, and its air force no longer poses a credible threat. Centcom indicates the next phase of the conflict will focus on dismantling Iran's missile and drone launch sites, weapons depots, and manufacturing facilities. However, Iran's vast territory-three times the size of France-complicates efforts to locate hidden stockpiles.
Gen. Dan Caine, America's top military commander, emphasized the challenges of aerial campaigns, citing historical precedents. "Israel has yet to dismantle Hamas in Gaza despite years of bombing," he noted, while Houthi rebels in Yemen withstood a prolonged US air campaign. "Destroying weapons from the sky is difficult," Caine added.
US production capacity faces pressure
Despite its unmatched military power, the US relies on precision-guided munitions produced in limited quantities. Trump is scheduled to meet with defense contractors this week to accelerate production, a sign that even America's resources may be stretched. The shift from costly long-range "stand-off" weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles to cheaper "stand-in" munitions such as JDAM bombs reflects efforts to conserve high-value stockpiles.
Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), estimates the US has tens of thousands of JDAM bombs but far fewer high-end air defense systems. Patriot missiles, critical for intercepting Iranian ballistic strikes, cost over $4 million each, with annual US production capped at around 700. Cancian warns that sustained missile barrages could deplete stockpiles, which he estimates at 1,600 Patriots before the conflict.
"If President Trump is willing to draw down Patriot reserves, we can outlast Iran-but at the cost of heightened risk in a potential Pacific conflict."
Mark Cancian, CSIS
Iran's drone exports and domestic challenges
Iran's pre-war stockpile included over 2,000 short-range ballistic missiles and tens of thousands of Shahed attack drones, technology it has exported to Russia for use in Ukraine. The US has even replicated the Shahed's design, underscoring its effectiveness. However, maintaining production amid airstrikes and sanctions will likely prove increasingly difficult for Tehran.
Uncertainty looms over long-term sustainability
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remains confident, stating, "Iran can't outlast us." Yet the conflict's duration could hinge on both sides' ability to replenish dwindling arsenals. While the US may sustain its air campaign indefinitely, the depletion of air defense systems like Patriots introduces vulnerabilities, particularly if tensions escalate elsewhere.
For now, the weapons race continues, with neither side willing to concede exhaustion first.
