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Ceasefire announced minutes before deadline
US President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire in the conflict with Iran just before a self-imposed deadline, averting an escalation that he had warned could erase Iran's "civilisation." The agreement, mediated by Pakistan, will bring American and Iranian negotiators to Islamabad as early as Friday to begin talks.
Conflicting proposals cloud negotiations
Trump revealed on Truth Social that the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, which he called a "workable basis" for negotiations. Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi referenced a 15-point US plan that Washington's chief negotiators suggested could end the war. Neither proposal has been officially released, though leaked versions highlight stark differences in each side's demands.
The White House has dismissed reports of Iran's plan circulating in the media, insisting it does not reflect the "working framework" under discussion. Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told the BBC that conflicting statements from Iran, the US, and Pakistan have created confusion. "We need to reconcile these details and understand the way forward," he said.
Nuclear programme remains a sticking point
The US initially cited Iran's alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons as the primary justification for the war, despite Tehran's long-standing denials. American officials now claim that military strikes, including last year's 12-day conflict and ongoing US-Israeli operations, have set back Iran's nuclear ambitions significantly. However, questions persist about the fate of an estimated 440kg (970lbs) of highly enriched uranium still in Iran's possession.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the uranium-referred to by Trump as "dust"-is buried under the rubble of Iran's Nuclear Technology/Research Centre in Isfahan and is under 24/7 surveillance. "There will be no Iranian nuclear weapons. Period. Full stop," he told reporters.
Iran insists any deal must recognise its right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Oman, which mediated before the war, said a viable agreement was previously on the table. However, Trump's reported 15-point plan demands that Iran dismantle all major nuclear facilities, halt uranium enrichment, transfer enriched stockpiles abroad, and accept intrusive international inspections.
Missile programme and regional influence at stake
The US plan also calls for Iran to suspend ballistic missile development, cease production of long-range missiles, and end drone transfers and military exports to proxies across the Middle East. Washington justified the war partly by arguing that Iran's missile programme provided cover for its nuclear ambitions. The Pentagon claims 80% of Iran's missile facilities, 80% of its air defence systems, and 90% of its weapons factories have been destroyed.
Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated that Iran's "protective umbrella" is now in ruins. Tehran has historically rejected limits on its missile programme, but the war's impact may force a shift in its stance.
Strait of Hormuz tensions persist
One of Iran's key achievements during the conflict has been its ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global waterway. Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran is willing to reopen the strait for two weeks, coordinating with its armed forces while accounting for "technical limitations." However, Iran has hinted at imposing new transit rules, including a reported $2m (£1.5m) fee per ship, with proceeds shared between Iran and Oman.
Gulf states, which rely on the strait for hydrocarbon exports, have rejected the proposal outright. Anwar Gargash called it a "dangerous precedent" for other global chokepoints. Trump has not ruled out the idea, even suggesting to ABC News that the US and Iran could jointly manage the strait. Administration officials, however, argue that since the US imports little Gulf oil, other nations should lead efforts to resolve the issue.
Last week, the UK hosted talks with over 40 countries on unblocking the strait, with all parties agreeing that the war must end first. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper welcomed the ceasefire, stating that discussions with the shipping, insurance, and energy sectors would continue.
Ceasefire excludes Lebanon, complicating regional peace
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the US and its allies had agreed to an "immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon." Iran, however, insists on a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, explicitly mentioning its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has rejected this demand, stating that the two-week truce "does not include Lebanon."
With Israeli troops operating inside Lebanon and Defence Minister Israel Katz vowing to destroy border villages with the same intensity used in Gaza, there is little indication this front will quiet. Trump appeared to support Israel's position, telling PBS that Lebanon was not part of the deal due to Hezbollah, calling the conflict there a "separate skirmish."
Trump's leadership style under scrutiny
Trump's unpredictable approach, often described as the "madman theory," has been credited with bringing Iran to the negotiating table through threats of annihilation. However, the war has also tested his authority, with shifting goals and apocalyptic rhetoric raising questions about his ability to secure a lasting peace. While he has demonstrated the capacity to launch a war, the challenge now is whether he can end one.
