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US condemns Rwanda over rebel offensive in DR Congo
The United States has publicly blamed Rwanda for escalating violence in Africa's Great Lakes region, just days after a Washington-brokered peace agreement aimed to end decades of conflict. The accusation follows the M23 rebel group's seizure of the strategic city of Uvira, which the US and European powers claim is backed by Rwandan forces.
Peace deal unravels as M23 advances
Less than two weeks ago, US President Donald Trump hailed the signing of a peace accord between DR Congo's President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame as a "historic" milestone. However, the M23 rebels-who were not party to the agreement-have since launched a major offensive, capturing Uvira in South Kivu province. The group declared the city "fully liberated," a move analysts say undermines ongoing negotiations.
UN experts have previously accused Rwanda of exerting "de facto control" over M23 operations, though Kigali denies direct involvement. Its presence at the Washington signing, however, signaled its influence over the rebel group.
Strategic city falls amid regional tensions
Uvira, located just 27 km (17 miles) from Burundi's capital, Bujumbura, serves as a critical supply route for Burundian troops deployed in eastern DR Congo. Researchers say the city's fall disrupts Burundi's military logistics and could force a withdrawal of its 10,000-strong contingent. Bram Verelst of the Institute for Security Studies noted that while some Burundian forces are retreating, others may remain, complicating the conflict's dynamics.
Aid agencies report that approximately 50,000 civilians have fled into Burundi in the past week, underscoring the humanitarian crisis. The M23's advance also severs DR Congo's last major military foothold in South Kivu, raising fears of a parallel rebel administration in the region.
Analysts question timing of offensive
Experts are puzzled by the timing of the M23's assault, which began days before the Washington peace deal was ratified. Jason Stearns, a political scientist specializing in the region, told the BBC the attack "flies in the face of all negotiations" and appears to humiliate US diplomacy. He suggested the rebels seek greater leverage in talks, while Rwanda distrusts Tshisekedi's commitment to peace.
Yale Ford of the American Enterprise Institute added that the M23 may use its military gains as a "bargaining chip" in future negotiations. Meanwhile, DR Congo's government has not acknowledged the loss of Uvira but warned of a "regional conflagration."
Regional rivalries and historical grievances
Burundi and DR Congo have long allied against Rwanda, accusing each other of backing rebel factions. Both nations share ethnic Hutu and Tutsi communities, with power struggles often fueling violence. Burundi's government, led by a Hutu majority, fears the M23's consolidation in South Kivu could embolden the Tutsi-dominated Red Tabara rebel group, which has launched attacks on Burundi in the past.
The M23 has sought to allay Burundi's concerns, stating its fight is confined to DR Congo. However, Rwanda's foreign ministry accused DR Congo and Burundi of provoking the crisis, claiming their forces bombed Rwandan border villages and amassed nearly 20,000 troops in South Kivu.
Military imbalance and drone warfare
The M23's recent successes, including the capture of Goma and Bukavu earlier this year, highlight its superior discipline and firepower. Stearns estimated the group has over 10,000 fighters, with Rwandan troops likely reinforcing the Uvira offensive. Both sides have deployed drones, but Rwanda's use of the technology has reportedly given it an edge.
The US, EU, and eight European governments have demanded an immediate halt to offensive operations and the withdrawal of Rwandan forces from eastern DR Congo. The US ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, warned that Rwanda is "leading the region toward war," despite Trump's peace efforts.
Future of peace talks in doubt
The Washington accord envisioned joint economic projects, including hydroelectric power and mining ventures, to stabilize the region. However, Stearns said such cooperation is unlikely while fighting persists. The parallel Qatar-led peace process between the M23 and DR Congo's government is also stalled, with Congolese officials unlikely to re-engage after the Uvira offensive.
Tshisekedi faces mounting public pressure over his failure to end the conflict, as well as resistance from military factions. Analysts say the US and other mediators must now decide how much political capital to invest in reviving the peace process.
"It's in the hands of the peace brokers now. The question is how much they care about ending this conflict."
Jason Stearns, political scientist
