Ask Onix
Ukraine targets Russian oil infrastructure near Baltic Sea
Ukraine has launched repeated drone strikes on key Russian oil export facilities in the Leningrad region over the past week, igniting fires that burned for days and halting shipments from major Baltic ports, satellite imagery and verified videos confirm.
Facilities hit in recent attacks
BBC Verify has confirmed strikes on at least three sites since 23 March: the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, and the inland Kirishi oil refinery. Commander of Ukraine's drone forces, Robert Brovdi, stated on Tuesday that Ust-Luga was struck again on Monday night to "keep the fire going."
Leningrad region Governor Alexander Drozdenko reported three injuries, including two children, during the attack, which involved 38 drones shot down by Russian defenses.
Impact on Russian oil exports
Analysis by the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) shows Ust-Luga and Primorsk accounted for 20% and 22% of Russia's total oil exports, respectively. No oil was loaded at any of Russia's three Baltic ports on 26 and 27 March-the first two-day halt since Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Satellite images reveal massive smoke plumes from Primorsk on 24 March and fires at Ust-Luga, while Kirishi suffered extensive damage by 27 March. NASA's FIRMS heat-detection system recorded ongoing fires at Primorsk as late as 02:54 BST on Monday and at Ust-Luga at 12:28 the same day.
Ukraine's strategic objectives
Brovdi framed the strikes as part of an operation to "demilitarise Russia's oil arteries, refining capacity, and crude export infrastructure." Ukraine's military has identified Kirishi as one of Russia's three largest refineries, producing fuels for its armed forces.
Reuters calculations indicate 40% of Russia's oil export capacity was paralyzed on 25 March following the initial attacks. Crea estimates Russia earned £7.1 billion from oil exports in the last three weeks of March, with prices surging due to disruptions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran.
International pressure and future risks
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed on Monday that allies have urged Kyiv to reduce attacks on Russia's energy sector amid a global energy crisis. He conditioned a halt on Russia ceasing strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
"It's likely Kyiv is attempting to offset the revenue windfall Russian oil and gas exporters are currently enjoying,"
Alexander Lord, analyst at UK-based intelligence firm Sybelline
Lord warned, however, that prolonged strikes could prompt the US to pressure Ukraine to stop, as part of broader efforts to stabilize global oil prices.
