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Fuel costs dip after 46-day rise
Motorists in the UK are seeing slight relief at the pump after fuel prices hit record highs during six weeks of consecutive increases, the RAC reports. The easing follows a volatile period triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which disrupted oil production and transport across the Middle East.
Conflict drives wholesale prices up
The war, which erupted on 28 February, led to missile strikes and drone attacks that halted or slowed energy shipments. Since crude oil is a primary component of petrol and diesel, higher wholesale costs translated directly to steeper prices for drivers. Analysts estimate that every $10 increase in oil prices raises pump costs by approximately 7p per litre.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, swung dramatically-from $73 to over $126 a barrel at its peak on Thursday, marking the highest level since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Filling a typical family car with petrol became £14 more expensive, while diesel costs surged by £27. At their peak, petrol reached 158.3p per litre, and diesel climbed to 191.5p, according to the RAC.
Prices begin to retreat
On 16 April, after 46 days of unbroken increases-the longest streak on record-average fuel prices finally started to decline. By Thursday, petrol had fallen to 157p per litre, while diesel dropped to 188.5p. The RAC expects diesel prices to continue falling but warns that petrol costs may rise again as demand increases in the US during spring.
"Petrol prices tend to climb in spring as Americans drive more, while diesel often becomes cheaper as Europe reduces heating oil use with warmer weather," said Simon Williams, the RAC's head of policy.
RAC
Strait of Hormuz remains critical
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas, continues to pressure prices. The waterway has been effectively shut since the conflict began, with only a handful of ships passing through daily-far below the usual 138 vessels. A temporary ceasefire has been extended, but negotiations between the US and Iran have stalled, leaving markets uncertain.
Earlier this month, the US imposed a blockade on Iranian ports to tighten economic pressure, prompting Iran to vow further disruptions in the Strait. Oil prices spiked this week amid reports that the US was considering additional strikes to break the deadlock and reopen the route.
Supply chain disruptions and UK impact
Damage to oil and gas facilities across the Gulf has further strained refining capacity. The UK, heavily reliant on imports-primarily from the US and Norway-remains vulnerable to global price fluctuations. While North Sea oil is extracted domestically, most of it is exported for refining abroad.
In March, Shell's CEO warned of potential fuel shortages in Europe within weeks due to the Strait's closure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) urged measures like remote work and carpooling to conserve energy. The UK, as an IEA member, holds over 90 days' worth of oil reserves, exceeding the required stockpile. However, the IEA cautioned that Europe has only about six weeks of jet fuel remaining.
Government response and future outlook
Chancellor Rachel Reeves assured the public that the UK is not facing an immediate shortage of petrol, diesel, or jet fuel. Airlines UK, representing the industry, confirmed no current disruptions but is discussing contingency plans with the government.
Domestic energy bills for most UK households are shielded from wholesale price swings until the end of June due to the price cap. However, bills could rise in July if the conflict persists. Households using heating oil, particularly in Northern Ireland and rural areas, have already seen costs climb due to global uncertainty. The government has allocated £53 million to support affected families.
Some analysts argue that easing restrictions on North Sea drilling licences could help curb price rises, though others doubt it would significantly lower costs for consumers. Meanwhile, suppliers have pulled cheaper fixed-rate energy deals from the market, leaving fewer options for new customers.
New tools for drivers
A government-backed scheme now allows drivers to compare fuel prices across UK petrol stations, helping them find the best deals amid fluctuating costs.
