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Trump's approval ratings decline in second term
U.S. President Donald Trump has seen a steady drop in public approval since returning to office in January, driven by rising living costs and economic unease. While second-term declines are common for U.S. presidents, Trump's fall reflects broader dissatisfaction with inflation and the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Economic concerns fuel Democratic gains
Democrats have outperformed their 2024 results in special elections this year, averaging a 13% improvement in contested districts, according to election analysis site The Downballot. Analysts attribute the shift to voter frustration over high prices, which has become a defining issue in recent races.
Iran war worsens economic strain
The U.S. intervention in Iran has intensified financial pressures, with gas prices climbing to nearly $4 per gallon. Trump's economic approval rating has fallen to 29%, lower than any point during Joe Biden's presidency, despite post-pandemic inflation challenges.
Polling firm Ipsos reported Trump's economic approval at 43% at the start of his second term, but it dropped to 35% by late June 2025 and has since declined further. His overall approval rating now sits at 40%, down from 52% in January, per political analyst Nate Silver's polling average.
Midterm elections loom as risk for Republicans
With congressional midterms seven months away, Trump's sagging approval poses a threat to Republican control. Prolonged economic disruption from the Iran conflict could deepen voter dissatisfaction, analysts warn.
"We cannot let the left win this election cycle and take away this agenda that we are fighting for every single day,"
Michael Whatley, North Carolina Senate candidate and former RNC chair
At this week's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Texas, speakers framed the election as a battle to preserve Trump's policies on immigration, tariffs, and government spending.
Base loyalty contrasts with independent skepticism
Despite economic concerns, Trump's core supporters remain steadfast. A Quinnipiac poll found 86% of Republicans back the Iran intervention, with 80% approving of Trump's handling of it. Nationally, however, only 34% of registered voters support his approach.
Independent voters, crucial to Trump's 2024 victory, are increasingly critical. A Pew Research Center analysis shows his base's loyalty has insulated him from steeper declines, but growing discontent among independents could sway November's outcome.
Outlook
Unless economic conditions improve or public sentiment shifts, Trump's low approval ratings may hinder Republican prospects in the midterms. The Iran conflict's economic fallout remains a key variable.
