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US ultimatum raises tensions in Gulf
President Donald Trump warned on Monday that the United States would eliminate Iran "in one night" if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 20:00 Washington time on Tuesday (00:00 GMT Wednesday). The threat escalates an already volatile standoff over the critical shipping lane, which carries a fifth of global energy supplies.
Asian nations bypass US pressure with separate agreements
Despite the looming deadline, several countries-particularly in Asia-have negotiated independent deals with Iran to ensure safe passage for their vessels. The Philippines became the latest nation to secure such an arrangement, following similar agreements by Pakistan, India, and Malaysia.
These moves reflect growing frustration among energy-dependent nations over Washington's push for a military-led solution. Trump has repeatedly urged allies to deploy warships to the region, arguing the US no longer relies on Gulf oil. However, Asian economies, which import the bulk of their energy from the Middle East, have opted for diplomacy instead.
Philippines strikes deal amid energy crisis
The Philippines, which imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East, reached an agreement with Tehran on Thursday after a phone call between officials. Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro confirmed Iran had guaranteed "safe, unhindered, and expeditious passage" for Philippine-flagged ships, calling the deal "vital" to securing energy and fertilizer supplies.
The country declared a national energy emergency last month after petrol prices more than doubled following the outbreak of hostilities between Iran and US-backed forces. The crisis has underscored the vulnerability of nations reliant on Gulf oil, even those traditionally aligned with Washington.
"Iran appears to be distinguishing between a country's alliance and its active participation in the conflict."
Roger Fouquet, National University of Singapore
Regional powers navigate Iran's conditions
Pakistan announced on March 28 that Iran had agreed to allow 20 of its ships to transit the strait. Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar praised the move as a "constructive gesture," emphasizing that dialogue remained the only viable path forward.
India, another major importer of Iranian oil, received public assurances from Tehran last week. The Iranian Embassy in New Delhi posted on X that "our Indian friends are in safe hands," while its South African office asserted that only Iran and Oman would decide the strait's future.
China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, confirmed last week that some of its vessels had crossed the strait but provided no details on the terms. Vessel-tracking data shows millions of barrels of US-sanctioned Iranian oil have reached Chinese ports in recent weeks, despite the broader conflict.
Uncertainty lingers over long-term stability
While these agreements mark a temporary diplomatic breakthrough, analysts warn they may not resolve the underlying crisis. Dimitris Maniatis of shipping consultancy Marisks questioned whether the guarantees apply to all vessels under a country's flag or only select ships. "The scope of these assurances remains unclear," he said.
Energy economist Roc Shi of the University of Technology Sydney noted that the deals reflect a pragmatic shift: "Countries reliant on Gulf energy now recognize they must engage with Iran." However, he cautioned that military operations in the region could still disrupt these arrangements.
Questions also persist over whether some nations paid Iran for safe passage. A Japanese shipping firm confirmed over the weekend that one of its LNG vessels had transited the strait but declined to comment on financial terms. Malaysia, which secured passage for some of its tankers in March, credited its "good diplomatic relationship" with Tehran for the deal.
Global shipping adapts amid geopolitical risks
With the strait's status still in flux, many tankers continue to fly flags of convenience-such as Panama or the Marshall Islands-which lack explicit guarantees from Iran. Maniatis suggested some countries might consider reflagging vessels to benefit from the new agreements, though the long-term feasibility remains uncertain.
For now, the deals offer a fragile lifeline to energy-dependent economies. But as Shi warned, "This is not a resolution-just a temporary workaround in an increasingly unstable region."
