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Trump's off-script remarks put Vance in diplomatic spotlight
During an Easter gathering at the White House last week, President Donald Trump lightheartedly warned he would hold Vice-President JD Vance accountable if ongoing negotiations with Iran collapsed. Speaking to senior officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, Trump quipped, "If it doesn't happen, I'm blaming JD Vance." He added that success, however, would be his own victory.
Vance's mission: A high-risk balancing act
Vance now leads a U.S. delegation in Islamabad, tasked with brokering a lasting peace to end the six-week conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and disrupted global markets. The talks present a defining challenge for his vice-presidency-one with little political upside but significant consequences if they fail.
A European official, speaking anonymously, emphasized the stakes: "Vance needs to deliver something tangible. Otherwise, his standing will suffer."
Competing interests and distrust complicate talks
Any agreement must satisfy multiple factions. Trump's shifting stance-alternating between calls for peace and threats of annihilation-adds unpredictability. Tehran, though weakened, retains control over the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel remains skeptical of a region-wide ceasefire. European allies, opposed to the war, have been reluctant to assist in reopening the strait.
Domestically, Vance must also navigate Trump's "America First" base, many of whom oppose foreign interventions. His past opposition to military entanglements, including private skepticism about strikes on Iran, contrasts with his public support for the war-a tension analysts say could undermine his credibility.
"Vance has signaled a desire for restraint in American foreign policy. That's hard to reconcile with this war,"
Jeff Rathke, President, American-German Institute
Trump's volatile leadership adds pressure
Trump's erratic approach was evident in the lead-up to Tuesday's ceasefire. Over 36 hours, he issued an ultimatum to Iran, warned of catastrophic consequences, and then announced a truce with minutes to spare. A senior European diplomat called the episode "one of the most nerve-wracking moments of Trump's second term."
Vance, who has publicly distanced himself from the conflict, now faces the challenge of representing a president whose positions shift rapidly. Before departing for Islamabad, Vance tempered expectations, stating, "If Iran negotiates in good faith, we'll meet them halfway." He also cautioned Tehran against deception, citing Trump's "clear guidelines."
Vance's diplomatic test: Can he deliver?
Despite his limited experience in high-level diplomacy, Vance has earned Trump's trust through loyalty and aggressive advocacy. His roles in criticizing European immigration policies, clashing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and campaigning for Hungary's Viktor Orbán have positioned him as a key "America First" envoy.
Yet his selection for the Iran talks has sparked debate. Some allies view it as a sign of U.S. seriousness, while others question whether Trump set him up for failure. A retired Israeli brigadier general, Assaf Orion, noted the technical complexity of issues like Iran's nuclear program, traditionally handled by envoys like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
"Kushner and Witkoff led Ukraine, Iran, and Gaza talks. It's tough to master all three simultaneously,"
Assaf Orion, Retired Israeli Brigadier General
Political risks loom for Vance
Success could bolster Vance's profile, but failure risks damaging his reputation-and Trump's tendency to shift blame adds peril. As Rathke noted, "Vance isn't negotiating for himself; he's securing the best deal Trump will accept. If the president later disavows it, Vance could pay the price."
With global attention fixed on Islamabad, Vance must navigate distrust, technical hurdles, and Trump's unpredictability. His performance may shape not only the war's outcome but also his own political future.
