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Trump's dual message to Iran: diplomacy or military action
US President Donald Trump delivered a stark warning to Iran on Thursday, coupling calls for a diplomatic resolution with the threat of a large-scale military strike. The mixed signals came during a meeting of the Board of Peace, a Middle East coalition Trump established to promote regional stability-a goal now overshadowed by escalating tensions with Tehran.
Military buildup raises stakes
Trump's rhetoric has grown increasingly combative in recent weeks, even as he claims to prefer negotiations. Analysts say the US has assembled its largest military presence in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War, though the White House has not clarified the objectives of a potential strike. A senior administration official urged Iran on Wednesday to accept a deal, warning that failure to do so could lead to "serious consequences."
Last June, the US conducted a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which Trump described as "obliterated." Yet the president has not explained why another attack might be necessary or what new targets would be hit. Unlike the Venezuela operation in January-which resulted in the capture of former President Nicolás Maduro-Trump's goals in Iran remain ambiguous.
Diplomatic impasse and unanswered questions
Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran have stalled over US demands that Iran curb its ballistic missile program and reduce support for regional proxy groups. Iran, weakened by sanctions and internal protests, has signaled openness to negotiations on uranium enrichment but rejected broader conditions. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not publicly responded to Trump's latest threats.
Key questions remain unanswered: Does the US seek regime change in Iran? How would it respond to retaliatory strikes on American bases in the region? What impact might a prolonged conflict have on other US priorities, such as the Gaza reconstruction process led by the Board of Peace?
Israel's role and domestic political pressures
Israel, which participated in last year's strike on Iran, is expected to join any new US military action. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump at the White House last week to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile, Trump faces domestic scrutiny ahead of his State of the Union address next week. His 2024 campaign promised to reduce foreign entanglements, but his administration has launched multiple military operations, including in Syria, Venezuela, and Iran.
A major strike on Iran could alienate Trump's base, which opposes intervention in conflicts like Ukraine. Polls show growing voter frustration over his handling of immigration and the economy, while critics argue his focus on foreign affairs detracts from domestic issues. The timing also clashes with his push for the Nobel Peace Prize-award he claims to deserve for ending eight wars, a disputed assertion.
Global uncertainty over Trump's strategy
Trump's approach has left allies and adversaries alike guessing. On Thursday, he offered no clarity, stating only, "We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen." His penchant for high-stakes negotiations-exemplified by recent actions like the Venezuela strike and the Greenland territorial dispute-has reinforced his image as a dealmaker, but also deepened skepticism about his long-term objectives.
"The world is waiting to see what he does next," said a European diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
