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Traders profit from pre-announcement bets during Trump's term
Financial markets have seen unusual trading surges minutes or hours before major statements by US President Donald Trump, raising concerns about potential insider trading, a BBC investigation reveals.
Oil market spikes precede Trump's Iran war remarks
On day nine of the US-Israel conflict with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the situation was "very complete, pretty much." The public first learned of the interview at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X. Oil prices plunged 25% as traders reacted to the news, but market data shows a surge in bets on falling oil prices occurred at 18:29 GMT-47 minutes before the post. Those early traders reportedly earned millions.
Similarly, on 23 March, Trump announced on Truth Social that Washington and Tehran had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" toward a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" of hostilities. The statement surprised diplomats and traders alike. Fourteen minutes before the post, an unusually high number of bets were placed on the US oil price, with similar activity seen in Brent crude contracts. One oil analyst called the trades "abnormal, for sure."
Global markets react to tariff announcements
On 2 April last year, Trump declared "Liberation Day," imposing sweeping tariffs on goods from nearly every country. Global stock markets plummeted. A week later, he announced a 90-day pause on the levies for all nations except China, sending markets soaring. The S&P 500 jumped 9.5%-one of its largest single-day gains since World War II.
Before the announcement, trading activity spiked dramatically. Contracts on an S&P 500-tracking fund surged to over 10,000 per minute after 18:00 BST, up from hundreds earlier in the day. Some traders bet over $2 million on a market rise despite seven consecutive days of losses, potentially earning nearly $20 million in profits.
Later that week, senior Senate Democrats urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to investigate whether the president's announcements "enriched administration insiders and friends at the expense of the American public." The SEC declined to comment on whether it had examined the allegations, and the White House did not respond to BBC requests for comment.
Predictions markets draw scrutiny amid unusual activity
Online prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, which allow speculation on events from foreign policy to sports, have also faced scrutiny. Donald Trump Jr., an investor in Polymarket and strategic advisor to Kalshi, was contacted for comment but did not respond.
In December 2025, an account named Burdensome-Mix on Polymarket placed $32,500 in bets between 30 December and 2 January that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of office by January's end. When Maduro was ousted by US special forces the next day, the account won $436,000 before changing its username and ceasing activity.
In February, six Polymarket accounts bet on a US strike on Iran by 28 February. When Trump confirmed the attacks early that day, the accounts earned $1.2 million collectively. Five of the six have not placed further bets, but one account later made $163,000 by correctly predicting a US-Iran ceasefire announced on 7 April.
Polymarket stated it "sets, maintains, and enforces the highest standards of market integrity" and works proactively with regulators. Both Polymarket and Kalshi introduced new rules in March to combat insider trading. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees predictions markets, did not respond to requests for comment, though its chair recently told Congress the agency has "zero tolerance" for fraud.
The White House sent an internal email last month warning staff against using insider information for predictions markets. Spokesman Davis Ingle dismissed allegations of misconduct as "baseless and irresponsible reporting" without evidence.
Legal challenges in enforcing insider trading rules
Insider trading has been illegal for most Americans since the 1933 Securities Act and was extended to cover US government officials in 2012. However, no one has been prosecuted under the latter law to date.
"The financial authorities will not carry out a prosecution if they can't figure out who the source of information is," says Paul Oudin, a financial regulation law professor at ESSEC Business School.
Paul Oudin, ESSEC Business School
Oudin notes that while massive trades may indicate insider knowledge, prosecutions are unlikely without identifying the information source. None of the US financial regulators contacted by the BBC acknowledged the insider trading allegations.
