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Unusual trading surge precedes presidential announcement
Traders wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on oil futures just minutes before US President Donald Trump revealed plans to delay military strikes against Iranian energy sites on Monday.
Market records examined by the BBC show a sharp increase in trading volume approximately fifteen minutes prior to Trump's social media post, which triggered a 14% drop in oil prices within minutes. Those who anticipated the move stood to profit significantly.
Timing raises insider trading suspicions
Analysts suggest the timing of the trades may indicate advance knowledge of the decision. The White House has not commented beyond stating it does not tolerate insider trading by administration officials, as reported by the Financial Times.
Global markets have been volatile amid escalating Middle East tensions, with oil prices swinging sharply on hopes of de-escalation. On Saturday, Trump threatened to destroy Iranian power plants if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz-a critical chokepoint for 20% of the world's oil and gas-within 48 hours.
Oil and stock futures see abrupt spikes
Markets reacted swiftly when trading resumed Monday after the weekend closure. Asian markets fell, and oil prices climbed-until Trump's 07:04 ET (11:04 GMT) post on Truth Social announced productive talks with Iran toward a "complete resolution." Oil prices plunged to $84 per barrel, while stocks rebounded.
In the minutes before the announcement, trading activity surged abnormally. At 06:49 ET, 734 WTI crude oil contracts were placed on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). By 06:50 ET, that number had ballooned to 2,168-equivalent to roughly $170 million. Brent crude contracts followed a similar pattern, jumping from 20 to over 1,650 trades in the same two-minute window, totaling about $150 million.
Historical data shows such volumes are highly unusual for that time of day. Futures for the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 also saw unusual activity, with traders betting on rising stock values just before the president's statement.
Analysts question lack of prior signals
"This appears abnormal, for sure. There were no indications of serious US-Iran talks at that time. Placing such large bets on falling oil prices raises questions."
Mukesh Sahdev, Chief Oil Analyst, XAnalysts
Rachel Winter, a partner at wealth management firm Killik & Co, noted that the timing of the trades-just before Trump's post-has fueled insider trading speculation. "We don't know if it's true, but an investigation would be welcome," she said.
Iran denies talks, oil prices rebound
Later on Monday, Iran's government dismissed the reported negotiations as "fake news." Oil prices edged upward following the denial. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Iran's parliament, accused the US and Israel of using "fake news" to manipulate markets and escape geopolitical pressure.
The BBC has reached out to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the UK's Financial Conduct Authority for comment.
History of market bets tied to US foreign policy
This is not the first instance of unusual trading linked to US actions. In January, bets surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, as traders wagered on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's removal from power. Hours later, Maduro was detained by US forces. One account turned a $32,537 bet into over $436,000.
