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Exodus from Tigray fuels fears of renewed war
Residents of Ethiopia's northern Tigray region are fleeing in growing numbers, three years after a fragile peace accord ended a devastating civil war. Witnesses in Mekelle, the regional capital, report that those with means are booking flights, while others crowd onto buses bound for Addis Ababa.
Economic instability mirrors the pre-war period, with soaring prices and bank runs forcing daily cash withdrawal limits of 2,000 birr ($13). Electronic transfers now incur extra fees, deepening financial strain. "The situation feels eerily familiar," a Mekelle resident told the BBC.
Peace accord unravels amid territorial disputes
The November 2022 Pretoria agreement, brokered by the African Union, silenced guns and restored basic services. Yet key parties-Eritrea and Amhara militias-were absent from the signing, leaving critical tensions unresolved.
Disputes over Tigray's western territories, occupied by Amhara forces during the war, have reignited hostilities. The TPLF, Tigray's ruling party, demands the return of these areas, where nearly a million displaced people remain in squalid camps. Recent clashes between federal troops and Tigrayan fighters, along with drone strikes, have heightened fears of escalation.
Eritrea's role and regional alliances shift
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of meddling by backing Tigrayan hardliners, a claim Asmara denies. Last October, Ethiopia's foreign minister warned the UN of an alleged Eritrean-TPLF alliance to "wage war." TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael echoed the alarm last week, declaring war "looming" and vowing resistance.
The geopolitical landscape has shifted since 2020. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, once allied with Eritrea during the Tigray war, now views Asmara's ties to the TPLF as a threat. Eritrea's secession in 1993 cost Ethiopia its Red Sea ports, a loss Abiy has called an "existential crisis." His recent hints at reclaiming Eritrea's Assab port by force have further strained relations.
Elections and legal battles deepen divisions
Ethiopia's June elections have exacerbated tensions. The TPLF, stripped of its legal status as a political party, cannot participate. A decision by the election board to hold separate votes in disputed areas-outside Tigrayan or Amhara control-has infuriated Tigrayans. Meanwhile, Amhara militias, who aided the federal government during the war, demand formal recognition of western Tigray as Amhara territory.
The TPLF itself is fractured, with splinter factions forming new parties. Abiy's supporters label remaining TPLF leaders "hardliners," blaming them for sabotaging the peace deal and aligning with Eritrea.
Humanitarian crisis looms as diplomatic leverage wanes
Tigray's scars from the 2020-2022 war remain visible. Infrastructure lies unrepaired, unemployment is rampant, and young people risk perilous journeys to Europe or the Middle East. A renewed conflict would devastate the region and could destabilize the Horn of Africa, where Sudan's civil war already rages.
"Any war between Ethiopia and Eritrea involving Tigray and other domestic actors is very likely to merge with Sudan's conflict,"
Michael Woldemariam, international relations expert
Diplomatic pressure from the US and Gulf states helped secure the 2022 deal, but experts warn leverage has diminished. The African Union's influence has waned, and Gulf rivalries-with the UAE backing Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia courting Eritrea-complicate mediation efforts.
Uncertain path forward
Saudi Arabia's recent meetings with Ethiopian and Eritrean officials offer a glimmer of hope, but its own Red Sea ambitions may limit its effectiveness. With the AU sidelined and global attention diverted, the risk of another catastrophic conflict in Tigray grows.
For now, residents brace for the worst. "The peace we had was fragile," said a Mekelle teacher. "Now it feels like we're back to square one."
