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Thaksin Shinawatra released from prison amid shifting Thai political landscape

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Thaksin Shinawatra walks free after eight-month jail term

Thailand's former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra left Bangkok's Klong Prem prison on Monday, completing part of a one-year sentence for corruption and abuse of power. The 76-year-old, dressed in a white shirt and with closely cropped hair, told waiting reporters he felt "relieved" and was in good health.

Supporters celebrate, but political influence wanes

Hundreds of red-shirted backers cheered as Thaksin emerged, some having traveled hundreds of kilometers. One devotee, Maysa Lombuarot, drove 700 km from her home to deliver 20 kg of lychees, a fruit Thaksin enjoys. "I want him to help the country and the people who are suffering," she said. "Only he can deliver what he promised."

From exile to incarceration: a turbulent return

Thaksin, a telecommunications tycoon, dominated Thai politics after his 2001 election victory. His populist policies won loyal followers but also provoked fierce opposition from royalist elites. After a 2006 coup, he lived abroad for 15 years, continuing to steer his Pheu Thai party from exile. A negotiated deal allowed his 2023 homecoming, but within months he was jailed on charges his allies called politically motivated.

Courts and coalitions reshape the playing field

While Thaksin served time, Pheu Thai suffered its worst electoral performance in February, slipping to third place behind reformist and conservative rivals. The party now holds a junior role in the governing coalition after courts removed his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister over a leaked border-dispute call with Cambodia's Hun Sen.

"Thaksin emerges to a new political environment. Pheu Thai is now a mid-sized party, and the challenge he faces is of a different magnitude,"

Political analyst Ken Lohatepanont

An era ends, but questions linger

Observers debate whether the "grand bargain" that brought Thaksin home was always doomed or whether his refusal to stay in the shadows provoked conservative backlash. Either way, analysts say the mutual distrust between Thaksin and royalist forces is now too deep to bridge. Even if he seeks a public role, legal barriers are likely to block him.

After a quarter-century defined by his influence, Thailand appears to be moving beyond the Thaksin era-though his next steps remain uncertain.

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