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Rising costs hit household budgets across Russia
Moscow resident Alexander, an advertising specialist, saw his monthly food budget jump 22% in a single month-from 35,000 roubles ($450) to 43,000 roubles ($555). His daily coffee now costs 26% more, mirroring broader price hikes on essentials like eggs, chicken, and vegetables.
Inflation outpaces wages as war spending weighs
Russia's economy, once buoyed by wartime spending, slowed sharply in 2025. Salaries failed to keep pace with inflation, leaving households like Alexander's facing steeper bills. Official data shows supermarket prices surged 2.3% in January 2026 alone, with staples from meat to medicine becoming pricier.
A BBC analysis of 59 basic goods at Moscow's Pyaterochka chain found an 18.6% increase since 2024, matching Rosstat's reported 18.1% food inflation over the same period. Fruit and vegetables led the rise, climbing nearly 15% due to a weaker rouble and supply chain disruptions tied to the Ukraine war.
Dairy, VAT hikes deepen financial strain
Locally produced dairy products saw the steepest jump-41% in two years-as rising farm costs, expensive loans, and labor shortages squeezed the industry. A January VAT increase from 20% to 22%, justified by the finance ministry as war funding, further fueled price hikes.
"The tax hike is directly linked to financing defense and security," the ministry stated.
Pensioners and middle-class families adjust
Retiree Nadezhda, 68, now spends her entire 32,000-rouble ($413) monthly pension on food, delaying car repairs and winter clothing. Marketing specialist Kristina, 45, has cut dining out and now calculates meals by protein content, noting others in supermarkets hunting for discounts.
"I don't buy what I want anymore-just what's affordable per 100 grams," Kristina said.
Economy teeters as oil prices and sanctions bite
Russia's Central Bank once predicted "balanced growth," but economists now warn of stagnation or recession. Oil prices, critical to the federal budget, have fallen in 2026, while U.S. sanctions disrupted sales to India, a key trading partner. High interest rates limit borrowing, forcing potential tax hikes or spending cuts that could further depress incomes.
"Every oil price drop raises recession risks," said Tatiana Mikhailova, an economist at Penn State University.
Uncertain outlook for households
While GDP hasn't yet declined, Mikhailova cautions that prolonged stagnation is likely. For Russians like Alexander and Nadezhda, the impact is already clear: smaller portions, delayed purchases, and a growing reliance on savings to cover daily needs.
