Quantum computing’s promise and perils: From drug discovery to Q-day threats

Quantum computing's promise and perils: From drug discovery to Q-day threats

Quantum mechanics-an enigmatic, partly theoretical physics field-has long baffled even experts, yet its potential to revolutionize technology rivals that of artificial intelligence (AI), according to industry analysts. While AI dominates headlines, quantum computing is quietly advancing, with tech giants like Microsoft and Google announcing breakthroughs. But unlike AI's software-driven rise, quantum's power lies in hardware: sensors and computers capable of feats impossible for classical machines.

Market potential and hype risks

The quantum sector could reach $97 billion by 2025, per McKinsey, though it remains dwarfed by AI's trillion-dollar projections. Both fields, however, face skepticism. In October, analysts warned quantum stocks might plummet by 62%, while AI's bubble fears grow louder. Brian Hopkins, VP at Forrester, notes quantum's fragility: "Initial experiments show promise, but we need far more powerful machines and research to harness quantum effects for AI."

Errors plague both technologies. AI's "hallucinations" are well-documented, but quantum systems suffer from environmental disruptions-light, noise, or temperature shifts can destabilize their delicate particle states. Elon Musk even suggested quantum computers might operate best in the Moon's shadowed craters.

Design and infrastructure challenges

Quantum computers bear little resemblance to traditional machines. Current prototypes, often housed in labs, resemble jellyfish-like structures requiring extreme cold and lasers. Home use is unimaginable today. Yet, innovations like synthetic diamonds-used to create qubits, quantum's building blocks-allow operation nearer to room temperature. De Beers' subsidiary, Element 6, launched the first "quantum-grade diamond" in 2020, collaborating with AWS to optimize artificial diamonds for quantum networks.

With roughly 200 quantum computers globally (China's count remains undisclosed), experts still make bold claims. Rajeeb Hazra, CEO of Quantinuum, told the BBC: "Quantum's impact will touch nearly every aspect of our lives-its potential rivals or exceeds AI's." UK quantum expert Sir Peter Knight added that tasks taking "the age of the universe" on supercomputers could soon take seconds.

Real-world applications: From medicine to navigation

Quantum's promise spans industries. In healthcare, it could accelerate drug discovery by simulating molecular combinations in minutes-processes that now take years. Google's 2024 "Willow" quantum chip, for instance, solved a problem in five minutes that would take supercomputers 10 septillion years. Personalized medicine, tailored to individual genetics, could follow.

Quantum sensors, already in use, enable breakthroughs like portable brain scanners. Nottingham University researchers developed a helmet-sized device for non-intrusive scans on children with epilepsy, overcoming limitations of stationary MRI machines. Meanwhile, Imperial College London tested a "quantum compass" on the Tube network-a GPS alternative immune to jamming, critical for defense and finance. Dr. Michael Cuthbert of the UK's National Quantum Computing Centre warned: "GPS underpins £1 billion daily in transactions; quantum resilience is vital."

Energy, logistics, and existential threats

The National Grid explores quantum solutions for "load shedding," optimizing energy distribution in real time to prevent blackouts. Airbus and UK firm IonQ trialed quantum algorithms to improve aircraft cargo loading-small gravity shifts can waste thousands of kilos of fuel.

Yet quantum's dark side looms: it threatens to crack current encryption. "Harvest now, decrypt later" attacks-where nations stockpile encrypted data for future decryption-are already underway. Prof. Alan Woodward of Surrey University calls this Q-day, potentially arriving by 2030. Apple and Signal have rolled out "post-quantum" encryption, but legacy data remains vulnerable. Daniel Shiu, ex-GCHQ cryptography head, told The Sunday Times it's "credible" China has compromised most UK citizens' data for eventual decryption.

"The threat is so high that everyone needs quantum-resistant encryption now."

Prof. Alan Woodward, cybersecurity expert