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Pakistan's unexpected diplomatic role
Islamabad has positioned itself as a mediator between Washington and Tehran, leveraging its unique ties to both sides amid escalating Middle East tensions. The move has drawn global attention, given Pakistan's own volatile relations with neighboring Afghanistan and India.
Why Pakistan?
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's military chief, enjoys a close relationship with US President Donald Trump, who has publicly praised Munir's deep understanding of Iran. Islamabad shares a 900-kilometer border with Tehran and describes its ties as "brotherly," rooted in cultural and religious bonds. Unlike Gulf states, Pakistan has no US military bases and has avoided direct involvement in the conflict-making it a neutral intermediary.
"Peace between the US and Iran aligns with Pakistan's interests," analysts note, though the country's own regional conflicts complicate its role. Pakistan is currently engaged in military operations against Afghanistan and narrowly avoided nuclear confrontation with India last year.
The balancing act
Pakistan has navigated a delicate tightrope, shuttling messages between Washington and Tehran while hosting foreign ministers from Muslim nations. However, its dependence on oil imports-much of which transits the Strait of Hormuz-exposes it to economic risks if the conflict escalates.
"Pakistan has more at stake than almost any country outside the Middle East. It has a compelling interest in de-escalation."
Michael Kugelman, Atlantic Council
Economic pressures are already mounting. In March, Pakistan hiked fuel prices by 20% and introduced a four-day workweek for government employees to conserve energy. Analysts warn that prolonged conflict could devastate its fragile economy.
Risks and reputational stakes
A defense pact with Saudi Arabia, signed last September, adds another layer of complexity. If Riyadh enters the war, Pakistan could face demands to honor the agreement, risking security along its western border with Afghanistan-a front it already describes as an "all-out war."
Domestic sentiment further complicates matters. After Iran's Supreme Leader was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike, pro-Iran protests erupted across Pakistan, with clashes at the US consulate in Karachi. Former ambassador Maleeha Lodhi notes that public opinion is "overwhelmingly pro-Iran," forcing leaders to tread carefully.
Global ambitions and Trump's favor
Pakistan's diplomatic push reflects its desire to reclaim influence on the world stage. It has cultivated ties with Trump, nominating him for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2025 and extraditing a suspect in the Kabul airport bombing. These gestures, coupled with strategic flattery, have bolstered its standing in Washington.
"Pakistan plays unconventional diplomatic games, unlike India. Its leaders' efforts to flatter Trump have made it an attractive mediator."
Michael Kugelman
Yet skepticism persists. Analysts warn that if mediation fails, Pakistan could face accusations of naivety-especially if the US and Iran use negotiations as a smokescreen for further escalation.
Uncertain path forward
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar's visit to China this week underscores Pakistan's multi-alignment strategy, engaging with Beijing while mediating between Washington and Tehran. However, the odds of success remain low, given deep mutual distrust and maximalist demands from both sides.
"The equation is the most difficult Pakistan will face if its current plans don't work."
Michael Kugelman
For now, Islamabad's gamble is clear: high risk, but potentially high reward. Success could elevate Pakistan's global stature, while failure may leave it exposed to economic and diplomatic fallout.
