Ask Onix
One Nation breaks through in South Australia election
A right-wing populist party led by Pauline Hanson has secured its strongest electoral result outside Queensland, winning over 20% of the vote in South Australia's state election on 21 March. The outcome marks a historic shift in Australia's traditionally two-party system and signals growing voter frustration with mainstream politics.
Historic gains amid voter disillusionment
One Nation, which has long been confined to the political fringes, won enough votes to elect at least three candidates in South Australia-mostly at the expense of the conservative Liberal Party. While incumbent Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas secured a decisive victory, the surge in support for Hanson's party has raised concerns among analysts about the future of Australia's major parties.
"This is a very ominous sign," said Kos Samaras, a former Labor strategist and co-director of polling firm Redbridge. "The major parties are losing their grip on voters who feel abandoned."
Cost of living and immigration dominate campaign
One Nation's success in South Australia was driven by voters grappling with rising living costs and dissatisfaction with immigration policies. The party campaigned on promises to boost housing supply and cap immigration, though state governments lack the authority to implement such measures.
Brittany, a 36-year-old aged care worker from Adelaide, said she switched her vote from the Liberal-National Coalition to One Nation after years of frustration. "I'm not against migration-we need it," she told the BBC. "But the system isn't working for ordinary people."
Andrew Sheffield, a 68-year-old former Labor voter, echoed similar sentiments. "Either buying a house or renting is a ridiculous cost now," he said. "The parties I once supported no longer represent working Australians."
A party built on controversy
Pauline Hanson, a former fish-and-chip shop owner, first entered parliament in 1996 with a speech warning Australia was "in danger of being swamped by Asians." Her rhetoric, which also targeted Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, set the tone for One Nation's anti-immigration platform.
Since then, Hanson has remained a polarizing figure. In 2003, she was briefly jailed for electoral fraud-a conviction later overturned. More recently, she was formally censured for claiming there were no "good" Muslims. Despite these controversies, her party has endured, capitalizing on voter discontent.
"She has styled herself as the anti-politician, the underdog who wants to drain the elite 'Canberra swamp.'"
Dr. Anna Broinowski, Hanson's biographer
Challenges ahead for One Nation
While the party's recent success is notable, analysts question whether it can sustain its momentum. One Nation has a history of internal divisions, with over 60% of its elected members leaving due to disputes with Hanson or other leaders. Former senator Brian Burston accused her of running a "dictatorship" after quitting in 2018.
Jennifer Game, a former speechwriter for Hanson, described a "disconnect between the party's public face and its internal operations." Hanson, however, dismisses such criticisms as political "elitism."
What's next for Australia's political landscape?
Pollsters suggest One Nation's rise reflects broader trends, including a cost-of-living crisis and infighting within the Liberal and National parties. The deadly Bondi Beach shooting in December, linked to Islamic State-inspired attackers, has also fueled anti-immigration sentiment.
Yet Australia's preferential voting system and compulsory voting may limit One Nation's long-term growth. "The party lacks the organizational experience and resources to seriously challenge the major parties," said Dr. Jill Shepherd, a political scientist at the Australian National University.
Hanson, undeterred, has already set her sights on upcoming elections in Victoria and a federal by-election in New South Wales. "This is the start of it," she declared on election night.
