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Historic election reshapes Nepal's political landscape
Nepal has witnessed a political earthquake as the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), a four-year-old outfit led by former rapper Balendra Shah, secured a commanding majority in the recent elections. This victory marks a dramatic departure from the country's established political order, with entrenched power structures crumbling under the weight of public discontent.
Symbolic victory and public sentiment
Shah, popularly known as Balen, delivered a symbolic blow to the old guard by defeating former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli in Jhapa 5, a constituency long considered Oli's stronghold. Across Nepal, RSP supporters expressed relief and hope for change, citing frustration with decades of perceived corruption and political stagnation.
"Balen represents hope for a new political culture," said Jhapa-5 voter Ispa Sapkota.
Challenges of governance for a political novice
Despite the landslide win, the RSP faces a steep learning curve. With no prior experience in national governance, the party must now meet the high expectations of a population eager for rapid reforms. Shah, 35, brings only three years of political experience as Kathmandu's mayor to his new role as the country's leader.
Critics point to Shah's record as mayor, where he faced accusations of heavy-handed tactics against street vendors. Human Rights Watch highlighted concerns about such approaches, often adopted by new leaders seeking quick results.
"We hope as prime minister, there would be a focus on a more rules-based order," stated Meenakshi Ganguly of Human Rights Watch's Asia Division.
Ambitious reform agenda
The RSP has outlined an ambitious reform plan, prioritizing anti-corruption measures. Key promises include investigating assets of political figures since the 1990s and nationalizing illegally acquired properties. The party also pledges to overhaul the judiciary, eliminate political appointments of judges, and enhance transparency through live-streamed trials.
Constitutional expert Bipin Adhikari expressed optimism about institutional support for these reforms, noting that Nepal's civil service, long politicized, may welcome the change.
Economic revival plans
The RSP aims to tackle youth unemployment, currently at 20%, and reverse brain drain by growing the economy by 7% annually. Their goal is to transform Nepal into a $100 billion economy within five to seven years. However, economists caution that these targets may be overly optimistic, given the World Bank's projection of 4.6% growth in 2025, with further slowdown anticipated.
Nishchal N Pandey, director of the Centre for South Asian Studies, highlighted the vulnerability of Nepal's economy to external shocks, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, which employs many Nepali workers and contributes significantly to remittances.
Internal and external pressures
The RSP's Shishir Khanal, a newly elected MP, outlined plans to incentivize the civil service through a new bill aimed at reorganizing pay and promotion structures. However, experts warn that the party's lack of governing experience could lead to internal divisions and challenges in maintaining party discipline.
"They are very new and don't have a background in statecraft," Adhikari noted, adding that individual ambitions could strain party cohesion.
The weak opposition in parliament raises concerns about unchecked power, with Adhikari emphasizing the need for a robust opposition, independent media, and strong institutions to ensure accountability.
Balancing regional dynamics
Nepal's geopolitical position between India and China adds another layer of complexity. While India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Shah and RSP President Rabi Lamichhane on their victory, the RSP has pledged to maintain Nepal's long-standing policy of non-alignment.
Former diplomat Bhattarai underscored the challenges of navigating relations with both neighbors, emphasizing the need to assure them that Nepali territory will not be used against either country. The RSP has ruled out security pacts and reaffirmed Nepal's constitutional stance on international relations.
High expectations and uncertain future
As Nepal embarks on this uncharted political journey, the RSP faces immense pressure to deliver on its promises. Young Nepalis, in particular, are keenly aware of their power to hold leaders accountable. The party's success or failure will shape the country's trajectory for years to come.
