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NASA's AI-powered Guardian system detects Kamchatka tsunami in real time
A magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula in July 2025, triggering a tsunami that raced across the Pacific at over 400 mph (644 km/h). For the first time, scientists tracked the event in near real time using atmospheric disturbances detected by NASA's newly AI-enhanced Guardian system, offering critical minutes of advance warning to coastal communities.
Unprecedented real-time detection
Within 20 minutes of the quake, Guardian-upgraded with artificial intelligence just a day prior-flagged the tsunami's approach toward Hawaii, providing a 30- to 40-minute alert before waves reached shore. Though the tsunami caused only minor flooding (peaking at 5 ft/1.7 m in Hawaii) and spared populated areas, the system's success marked a breakthrough in disaster monitoring.
"They identified the tsunami almost instantly," said Jeffrey Anderson, a data scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research and Guardian collaborator. "Years ago, this idea seemed far-fetched-now it's saving time when seconds count."
How the atmosphere reveals hidden waves
Tsunamis in open water often go unnoticed, with waves just 10-50 cm (4-20 in) high. Yet their massive displacement of water sends ripples into the ionosphere-60 to 300 miles (97-483 km) above Earth-altering electron density. These disturbances delay GPS signals between satellites and ground stations, a phenomenon Guardian exploits to pinpoint tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, or even nuclear tests.
"The ionosphere reacts like a drumskin," explained Michael Hickey, professor emeritus of physics at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. "A tsunami's energy creates concentric rings of charged particles we can now decode in real time."
"Minutes are critical for tsunami evacuations. Guardian's early detections could revolutionize coastal safety."
Harold Tobin, seismologist, University of Washington
Beyond earthquakes: A multipurpose sentinel
The system's versatility extends to landslide-triggered tsunamis, rocket launches, and clandestine nuclear tests-like North Korea's 2009 underground detonation, later confirmed via ionospheric ripples. While traditional tools (seismometers, ocean buoys) remain vital, Guardian offers a faster, broader view.
Europe is developing a parallel system, led by Elvira Astafyeva at the Paris Institute of Planetary Physics, aiming to cover the Indian Ocean and other high-risk zones. "Airglow-faint atmospheric light-could also reveal tsunamis," noted Hickey, highlighting complementary detection methods.
Limitations and future potential
Ionospheric signals take minutes to manifest, limiting use for communities near an epicenter. Yet for distant coasts-like Sri Lanka during the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, where waves arrived hours later-Guardian could be life-saving. Upcoming upgrades may enable automated wave-height and landfall forecasts every 10 minutes.
"For trans-oceanic tsunamis, this is a game-changer," said Diego Melgar, a tsunami expert at the University of Oregon. "The challenge now is refining speed and accuracy for local threats."
